Nomura

As Rick Santelli just noted, the JPY carry trade is the only thing that matters. It is the only fun-durr-mental factor that matters (implicitly or explicitly encouraged by the varying velocities of BoJ and Fed balance sheet flows). To that end, this morning has seen the crucial Abenomics make-it-or-break-it 102 level for USDJPY tested once again... and then instantly ramped (by Nomura we suspect by all market chatter accounts). We will wait for Europe's close to see reality.

Indicators of US balance-sheet repair hardly signal the onset of the more vigorous cyclical revival that many believe is at hand. Optimists see it differently. Encouraged by sharp reductions in households’ debt-service costs and a surprisingly steep fall in unemployment, they argue that the long nightmare has finally ended. That may be wishful thinking. Notwithstanding the Fed’s claims that its unconventional policies have been the elixir of economic renewal in the US, the healing process still has years to go. This should not be surprising.  Far too many US households made enormous bets on the property bubble, believing that their paper gains were permanent substitutes for stagnant labor income... and appear to be doing the same again.

As we noted earlier, the "surprise" factor of the Turkish Central Bank's (CBT) emergency meeting is seeming to have the desired effect as the Lira has rallied over 1000 pips since the announcement. Officially there has been no intervention and, despite Erdogan's political pressure on the CBT not to raise rates (because of the "interest rates lobby"), Barclays (as we noted here) and most other banks are expecting more conventional dramatic interest rate hikes (since everyone knows the FX reserves are running dry):

*TURKEY NEEDS TO RAISE O/N RATE 300BPS FOR MKT EFFECT: JPMORGAN

However, JPMorgan adds that it "strongly doubts this will regain investors confidence" and Finansbank warns it has "significant doubts" that the CBT will deliver. And this is what the rest of the market thinks...

Amid calls to spread the wealth (among the elites in Davos) and for an end to violence in Ukraine, the Pope released his "peace" doves today to send a message of hope to the world. However, the callous claws of capitalism (in the form of a black crow) and the sullen shape of social unrest (in the form of a seagull) decided to send their own message. As the sad images below show, the peaceful dove had his feathers ruffled following the callous attack by the winged avengers... As one wit noted, rumors that the end is nigh are as yet unconfirmed (although if Nomura loses control of the USDJPY levitation, and it breaches the 102 support, all bets are off).

China faces a very significant test of its reform policy pursuit rhetoric. With China's Bank regulator set to issue an alert on coal-industry loans - "as a result of outout cuts, they don't have much cash flow and thus they can't repay loans and debt," the massive growth in wealth products such as the CEG#1 (which offered a 10% yield for a 3 year term) based on these loans leaves the Chinese with a moral hazard dilemma - bailout or no bailout. ICBC has made it clear it wil not bailout investors since reputational damage would be "well manageable," and former-PBOC adviser Li Daokui adds that "a controlled default is much better than no default," noting critically that trust defaults "will teach future investors a very important lesson." Belief that contagion can be "contained" brings back memories of 2008 in the US but a total (or even partial) bailout will merely increase the leverage and risk-taking problem and signal government talk of policy reform is not real.

The PBOC has injected around CNY 400 billion into China's banking system in the last week focused in the 7-day reverse-repo maturity. While this has been greeted with moderation of the spiking trend in ultra-short-dated funding costs, there is a problem still. With the CEG#1 Trust maturing on 12/31 coinciding with the farce that is the 'confess all mismatched sins' debacle that occurs every Chinese Lunar New Year, the need for liquidity through that maturity is becoming extreme (while shorter-dated not so much). 14-day repo is now at 7.2% - almost 300bps above 7-day repo (which matures before year-end). In fact, it seems those concerned about possible Chinese contagion effects are buying protection aggressively as 5Y CDS jumped over 5bps to 102bps - the widest in 7 months (since the credit crunch in the Summer). This is far from over...

News that India may be folding on its capital controls had sent gold and silver surging this morning but following this morning's collapse in emergency claims benefits in the US (expected, but still shocking), precious metals are extending gains, Treasury yields are tumbling, and the USD is well offered. US and German stocks are also cracking lower (with chatter of a flash-crash in Germany's DAX). The more likely driver of all this weakness is that Nomura (or some large Japanese BoJ proxy) lost the 104 USDJPY anchor...

Things in the country whose central bank assets have climbed to ¥229 trillion, or 48 percent of the nation’s nominal gross domestic product, are about to get very interesting: on one hand, it will have no choice but to slow down monetization under its existing QE program. On the other, pernicious inflation is spreading doubts the BOJ will be able to boost QE in the near-future. What is a country stuck in a vortex between deflation and runaway inflation to do? "It may be too late to prevent long-term rates doing something crazy” should the BOJ hold off on tapering before inflation reaches the target, said Richard Koo, the chief economist in Tokyo at Nomura.

The S&P 500 managed to get back into the green for 2014 - which means new all-time highs (topping the all-important 1850 level for the first time today). This is the best 2 days for the S&P since mid-October. Only the Dow remains red for 2014 (a 200bps underperformer versus the Trannies!) among the major indices as JPY carry once again dragged its equity cousins higher in fits and starts. Interestingly, VIX and 30Y bonds were not amused and did not join the party - both unchanged on the day. 5Y and 7Y bonds sold off modestly but rallied off the post-data spike highs in yields all through the US day session. The USD strengthened notably (+0.5% on the week) as JPY weakness led stocks. Oil jumped higher on the day to $94.50 (slamming the WTI-Brent spread) and despite USD strength, gold and silver lifted off early lows to close green. Volume was solid today as the 1.5% dip has been well-and-truly ripped (as banks and tech lead the charge).

• House Unveils $1.01 Trillion Measure to Fund Government (BBG)
• Credit Suisse Tells Junior Bankers to Take Saturdays Off (BBG)
• Spot the odd word out: ECB Sees Bad-Debt Rules as Threat to Credible Bank Review (BBG)
• Insert laugh track here: Spain GDP grows at fastest pace in almost six years (FT)
• Scandinavian Debt Crisis Waiting to Happen Puzzles Krugman (BBG)
• Fed Said to Release Plan to Limit Banks’ Commodities Activities (BBG)
• Thai Protesters Extend Blockade After Rejecting Poll Talks (BBG)
• China provinces set lower growth goals for 2014 (BBG)

In a day that will be remembered for the first major snowstorm to hit New York in 2014 and test the clean up capabilities and resolve of the city's new populist mayor (not starting on a good note following reports that JFK airport will be closed at least until 8:30 am Eastern), it was only fitting that there was virtually no overnight news aside for the Chinese non-manufacturing PMI which dropped from 56.0 to 54.6, a new 4 month low. Still, following yesterday's ugly start to the new year, stocks in Europe traded higher this morning, in part driven by value related flows following the sell-off yesterday. Retailers led the move higher, with Next shares in London up as much as 11% which is the most since January 2009 and to its highest level since 1988 after the company lifted profit forecast after strong Christmas trading performance. Other UK based retailers with likes of AB Foods and M&S also advanced around 2%.

A year which showed that central planning works (for the fifth year in a row and probably can continue to "work" at least a little longer - in the USSR it surprised everyone with its longevity before it all came crashing down), is drawing to a close. This is what has happened so far on the last trading session of 2013. As market participants head in to the New Year period, volumes are particularly thin with closures being observed across Europe with only the CAC, IBEX and FTSE 100 trading out of the major European indices, with German, Switzerland, Italy and the Nordic countries are already closed. The FTSE and CAC are both trading in the green with BP leading the way for the FTSE earlier in the session after reports the Co. have asked a federal appeals court to block economic loss payments in its settlement of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. European stocks rise, with real estate, travel & leisure leading gains. Retail shares underperform as Debenhams slumps following its IMS. A number of major markets will close early today. The euro falls against the dollar. Fixed income market are particularly quiet with the Eurex being shut. Whilst Gilts are seen down this morning following on from yesterday’s short-covering gains.

If yesterday's price action in the moments following (and preceding) the FOMC announcement was just a little suspicious, with a seemingly endless supply of VIX selling originating as if from nowhere (or perhaps the 9th floor of Liberty 33) the morning after has so far been a snoozer. Perhaps this is to be expected following the third biggest one-day surge in the stock market in the year (1st =  Jan 2nd, 2nd = October 10th), or perhaps the market is finally focusing on Bernanke's tongue in cheek suggestion that the taper may be lowered by $10 billion per month (we disagree as described previously). Or perhaps the creep higher in 10 Year yields, at 2.915% at last check and just shy of the 3.00% psychological level, is finally being noticed. Or perhaps the fact that China, very surprisingly, is also tapering concurrently is finally being appreciated as is the fact that despite all talk of preparedness, developing economies were hardly left unscathed following yesterday's development. Whatever the reason, the euphoria this morning has "tapered."

Strategists were largely wrong about the yes taper in September, and then they were just as largely wrong about the no taper in December, and yet their opinion is just as largely gospel and people continue to listen to them (what else is there to be distracted by in a still very much centrally-planned market and economy). Which is why the below summary by Bloomberg of what global financial strategists and investors, also known as "they", are saying about how to trade assets in the post-taper world, should probably be taken, largely, with a grain of salt.

Today (like pretty much every other day), it will be all about the Fed and the start of its 2-day FOMC meeting, whose outcome will be influenced by today's 8:30 am CPI report as inflation (Exp. 0.1%) according to many is the only thing stopping the Fed from tapering in light of better than expected recent economic data as well as a clearer fiscal outlook. Or at least that's what the watercooler talk is. The hardliners now agree that since the Fed openly ignored the bond market liquidity considerations in September, that it will plough on through December with no announcement, and potentially continue into 2014 with zero chances of tapering especially now that we approach the end of the business cycle and the Fed should be adding accommodation not removing it. To that end, the consensus still is in favour of January or March for the first taper so markets are not fully set up for a move; conversely a dovish statement would probably result in yet another pre-Christmas, year end market surge, which in the lower market liquidity days of December is likely what the Fed is going for, instead of a volatile, zero liquidity sell off, despite Thursday's double POMO.