Nomura

Martin Armstrong, Max Keiser and High-Level Economists Weigh In

The new year has officially started because it wasn't even a day in and Mario Draghi was once again out and about, jawboning the Euro to a lower level than where it was when he said back in 2012 he would do "whatever it takes" to push it higher. The reason, as Reuters reports, why the Euro sank to a nearly 5 year low against the USD, was "clear indications that the European Central Bank will soon embark on outright money-printing." Actually, it was on just more hollow rhetoric by Draghi, who told German Handelsblatt that "the risk that we don’t fulfill our mandate of price stability is higher than it was six months ago." He also added that "it’s difficult to say” how much the institution will have to spend on government-bond purchases.

French investors are piling into Japanese stocks again - just as they did at the end of 2013 - and as Bloomberg reports, this is a sign to Nomura that the market is poised to fall as those same French 'investors' unceremoniously dumped it all in January and February of 2014. “The French were huge net buyers at the end of last year... and now they're doing it again," noptes Nomura, "if they decide to unwind positions, the Japanese market is in for a drop."

The Japanese stock market reached its all-time-high on December 29th 1998, and as The Wall Street Journal reports, analysts were still looking forward to another strong year for shares in 1990, despite some signs of danger. Reading through the headline on that day suggests, 25 years later, investors and talking-heads have learned absolutely nothing...

• Police officers' slaying raises pressure on New York mayor (Reuters)
• People Call for Cooling of Racial Tensions After Murder of NYPD Officers (BBG)
• The $6.3 Trillion Frenzy That Vanquished Treasury Bears (BBG)
• China Investigates Possible Stock-Price Manipulation (WSJ)
• Citigroup Was Wary of Metals-Backed Loans (WSJ)
• UPS Turns Parking Lots Into Sorting Centers to Add Speed (BBG)
• U.S. Move to Normalize Cuba Ties Boosts Firms’ Asset Claims (WSJ)
• Meredith Whitney’s Fund Said to Drop 11% as Office Put on Market (BBG)
• Railcar Bottleneck Looms for Oil (WSJ)

• Swiss National Bank Starts Negative Interest Rate of 0.25% to Stave Off Inflows (BBG)
• Putin Strikes Uncompromising Stance Over Crisis Gripping Russia (BBG)
• Sony cancels North Korea movie in apparent win for Pyongyang hackers (Reuters)
• U.S. Said Set to Blame North Korea for Sony Cyber Attack (BBG)
• China’s Short-Term Borrowing Costs Surge as Demand for Money Grows (WSJ)
• Russia Currency Market Bends But Doesn’t Break (BBG)
• Jeb Bush Puts Pressure on Chris Christie for 2016 (WSJ)
• From joy to outrage, Florida's Cuban-Americans greet new U.S. policy (Reuters)
• Russians Quit London Luxury Homes as Only Super-Rich Stay (BBG)

• Shale operaters Goodrich, Oasis Petroleum cut spending for 2015 as oil slides (Reuters)
• Greece to hold elections in January if president vote fails (Reuters)
• Norway’s Shock Rate Cut Drives Krone to Lowest Since 2009 (BBG)
• ‘Severe Downturn’ Threatening Norway, Central Bank Governor Says (BBG)
• Russia’s Fifth Rate Increase Fails to Halt Ruble Slide to Record (BBG)
• SNB Says Deflation Risks Increased as Franc Cap Maintained (BBG)
• China eases bank lending restrictions, PBOC targets 10 trillion yuan in loans for 2014 (Reuters)
• Mobius Says China’s Bull Market Is Just Getting Started (BBG)
• How Wal-Mart Made Its Crumbling China Business Look So Good for So Long (BBG)

• New Normal headlines: Global stocks up on hopes of China policy easing (Reuters)
• China inflation eases to five-year low (BBC)
• U.S. Lawmakers Agree on $1.1 Trillion Spending Bill (WSJ)
• U.S. Braced for Blowback as CIA Report Lays Bare Abuses (BBG)
• CIA tortured, misled, U.S. report finds, drawing calls for action (Reuters)
• CIA Made False Claims Torture Prevented Heathrow Attacks (BBG)
• Oil Resumes Drop as Iran Sees $40 If There’s OPEC Discord (BBG)
• OPEC Says 2015 Demand for Its Crude Will Be Weakest in 12 Years (BBG)
• Greek yield curve inverted as politics raise default fears (Reuters)

• Welcome to the recovery:
  • Euro zone warning hits stocks, currency as oil plumbs depths (Reuters)
  • Japan GDP Worse Than Initially Reported (WSJ)
  • China trade data well below expectations (BBC)
  • German industrial production frustrates forecasts (FT)
• Oil Extends Retreat With European Stocks as Dollar Gains (BBG)
• California police, protesters clash again after 'chokehold' death (Reuters)
• Ruble’s Rout Is Tale of Failed Threats, Missteps (BBG), not to be confused with "Yen's Rout Is Tale Of Keynesian Success, Prosperity"
• Uber banned from operating in Indian capital after driver rape (Reuters)

• Fall of the Bond King: How Gross Lost Empire as Pimco Cracked (BBG)
• Hong Kong 'Occupy' leaders surrender as pro-democracy protests appear to wither (Reuters)
• Ashton Carter, Ex-Pentagon No. 2, Emerges as Obama Favorite for Defense Secretary (WSJ)
• Oil, the Ruble and Putin Are All Headed for 63. A Russian Joke -- for the Moment (BBG)
• New U.S. oil and gas well November permits tumble nearly 40 percent (Reuters)
• Swedish government on brink of collapse (AJ)
• China says Britain has no moral responsibility for Hong Kong (Reuters)
• Indian Labs Deleted Test Results for U.S. Drugs, Documents Show (BBG)

"This is a golden time window to acquire more strategic oil at lower costs," notes one Hong-Kong based analyst, as Bloomberg confirms what we have noted here and here, that China is emerging as the winner from OPEC’s battle with rival oil producers as the world’s biggest energy consumer stockpiles crude.

• Ferguson in Flames (Reuters)
• Ferguson Cop Told Grand Jury He Feared for His Life (BBG)
• Sharpton: Grand Jury Announcement ‘An Absolute Blow’ (Daily Caller)
• Gunshots echo as violence returns to Ferguson, protests across U.S. (Reuters)
• BoJ members warned on costs of more easing (FT)
• Hagel Exit Shows Obama Has Taken Power Away From Pentagon (BBG)
• Ukraine leader, under pressure from West, pledges new government soon (Reuters)
• Eurozone Stagnation Poses Major Risk to Global Growth, OECD Warns (WSJ)
• ECB’s Coeure Says Officials Won’t Rush as They Debate All Assets (BBG)

• They go all in: China’s PBOC Cuts Interest Rates for First Time Since 2012 (BBG)
• And all in-er: ECB's Draghi throws door to quantitative easing wide open as recovery wanes (Reuters)
• Global Markets Rally: ECB Head Says Central Bank Is Ready to Expand Stimulus Program After China Cuts Rates (WSJ)
• Obama unveils U.S. immigration reform, setting up fight with Republicans (Reuters)
• U.S. increasing non-lethal military aid to Ukraine (Reuters)
• Russia warns U.S. against arms to Ukraine as Biden due in Kiev (Reuters)
• Ukraine slashed gold holdings in October, Russia added more - IMF (Reuters)
• Abe Dissolves Japan’s Lower House of Parliament (WSJ)

Keynesian fiscal policies and central banking regimes have buried the public sectors of most of the world’s major economies in unsustainable debt. Now they propose to double down on more of the same because an entire generation of politicians have been house-trained in permanent fiscal profligacy and endless kicking of the fiscal can down the road. To be sure, in perhaps putting off Japan’s day of fiscal reckoning once again, Prime Minister Abe is proving himself to be a certifiable madman. In short order, however, he will have plenty of company all around the planet.

Despite the apparent economic and profit news improvements recently, JPMorgan CIO Michael Cembalest notes there are a few instances where people are still flipping out. It’s worth reviewing them, he suggests, as they're indicative of risks and opportunities in financial markets heading into 2015, and of the continued presence of central banks affecting asset prices.