Australia

Overview of the major central bank meetings and data preview as well as the latest from Cyprus and Italy.

A month ago we pointed out that as a result of Australia's unprecedented reliance on China as a target export market, accounting for nearly 30% of all Australian exports (with the flipside being just as true, as Australia now is the fifth-biggest source of Chinese imports), the two countries may as well be joined at the hip. Over the weekend, Australia appears to have come to the same conclusion, with the Australian reporting that the land down under is set to say goodbye to the world's "reserve currency" in its trade dealings with the world's biggest marginal economic power, China, and will enable the direct convertibility of the Australian dollar into Chinese yuan, without US Dollar intermediation, in the process "slashing costs for thousands of business" and also confirming speculation that China is fully intent on, little by little, chipping away at the dollar's reserve currency status until one day it no longer is.

The smart money is selling Hong Kong and Singapore property. This implies real estate prices may be topping out, with far-reaching consequences.

An oveview of the technical condition of the major currencies.  Offered as a compliment to macro analysis.  

Another non-Russian, non-oligarch, non-billionaire, non-tax evader speaks up...

While the news flow is dominated by Cyprus, it will be important to not lose sight of the developments in Italy, where we will watch the steps taken towards forming a government.  The key release this week is likely to be US consumer confidence. Keep a watchful eye on the health of the consumer in the US after the tax rises in January. So far, household optimism and demand has held up better than expected. The IP data from Taiwan, Singapore, Korea, Thailand, Japan will provide a useful gauge on activity in the region and what it reflects about global activity, however Chinese New Year effects will need to be accounted for in the process.

• Cyprus targets big depositors in bank plan  (FT)
• Merkel Vents Anger at Cyprus Over Bailout Plan as Deadline Looms (BBG)
• Russia rebuffs Cyprus, EU awaits bailout "Plan B" (Reuters)
• Russia Rejects Cyprus Bid for Financial Rescue as Deadline Looms (BBG)
• Cyprus unveils shake-up as the clock ticks (FT)
• Remember Italy? Italy’s stalemate unnerves investors (FT)
• Credit Suisse CEO pay jump to fuel banker bonus debate (Reuters)
• Kuroda Rebuts Reflation Naysayers as BOJ Action Looms (BBG)
• Fund Manager Says 'Whale' Trade Was a Bet (WSJ)
• House averts government shutdown, backs Ryan budget (Reuters)
• Hong Kong Homes Face 20% Price Drop as Banks Raise Rates (BBG)

With some predicting China will import 79% of its oil by 2030, could domestic shale gas extraction help China meet its energy needs? As shale gas fever sweeps through Beijing, analysts are looking at the costs and benefits of extracting what is increasingly a controversial source of energy. But for China, with its growing middle class, the immediate and long-term demand for energy has the potential to spark a revolution in shale gas before sufficient and safe technological know-how and regulations are developed.

Given the relatively calm market reaction to yesterday's vote by the Cyprus Parliament, the UK budget and the US FOMC meeting will be vying for attention today. Got Milk? Milk prices have soared again in New Zealand to distribute the drought induced scarcity. Whole powder milk prices jumped 21% in the latest fortnightly auction, while volumes fell 28%.

In 2013, we are receiving the same banker and mass media propaganda that we heard in 2008. The stock markets are okay, economies are recovering, blah, blah, blah. However, do any of the facts support the propaganda? For example, this “bullish” US stock market has not even recovered to the levels of October, 2007. And even, if more QE, more HFT low-trading volume rigging can rig US and other western markets higher, do rising stock markets even matter if the growth of stock markets are less than

• Cyprus parliament ready to veto deposit tax (Reuters)
• Power still out at damaged nuclear plant in Japan (AP)
• CS' Dougan Calls Bankers Out-Earning Investors Unsustainable (BBG)
• Citi in $730 Million Pact on Debt Suits (WSJ)
• Bernanke Tightens Hold on Fed Message Against Hawks (BBG)
• India Central Bank Cuts Lending Rate (WSJ)
• ECB role in bailout comes under scrutiny (FT)
• Putin Buddy Gets $7 Billion of Deals for Sochi Olympics (BBG)
• BlackRock to Cut About 300 Jobs in Fink’s Reorganization (BBG)
• Trade, economy top agenda as China's Xi meets U.S.'s Lew (Reuters)
• Late Winter Storm Threatens Heavy Snow for Northern New England (BBG)
• China Foreign Investment Rebounds as Confidence Returns (BBG)
• Republicans differ on flexibility on taxes with Obama (Reuters)

• Cypriot Bank Levy Is ‘Ominous’ for Bondholders, Barclays Says (BBG)
• Euro, Stocks Drops; Gold, German Bonds Rally on Cyprus (BBG)
• Total chaos:Cyprus tries to rework divisive bank tax (Reuters)
• More total chaos: Cyprus Prepares New Deposit-Tax Proposal (WSJ)
• Euro Slides Most in 14 Months on Cyprus Turmoil; Yen Strengthens (BBG)
• Osborne to admit fresh blow to debt target (FT)
• Even the Finns are giving up: Finnish Government May Relinquish Deficit Target to Boost Growth (BBG)
• Moody’s Sees Defaults as PBOC Warns on Local Risks (BBG)
• Australia Faces ‘Massive Hit’ to Government Revenue, Swan Says (BBG)
• Inside a Warier Fed, Watch the New Guy (Hilsenrath)
• Obama to Tap Perez for Labor Secretary (WSJ) - and with that the "minorities" quota is full
• Finally, this should be good: BuzzFeed to Launch Business Section (WSJ)

As expected, it is all about Cyprus this morning, and overnight, and just as naturally it wouldn't be a centrally-planned market without the generic BTFD overnight ramp attempt, which we got from the EURUSD, as the pair rose from sub 1.29 to 1.2973, which also pushed the US futures up to nearly fill half the overnight gap lower. Citi explained this, observing the "EUR/USD squeezed higher on reports Cyprus bailout terms may be eased, CitiFX Wire says", but it did add that "selling was likely to materialize; flow has 60% bias in favor of downside, Seeing heavy net selling, mainly from leveraged funds." Naturally, the market does what it does best - clutches at straws, although not even this centrally-planned market could ignore news that today's Cyprus parliament vote has been cancelled, that banks will likely remain closed tomorrow, and that a vote may not happen until Friday, which likely means the bank holiday is about to stretch to one week, and possibly much longer as Cyprus is terrified to open its banks to the fury of scrambling "bank-runners." Things started to get interesting following another RIA report citing finance minister Siluanov, that Russia may reconsider its role in the Cyprus rescue following the bank tax. Siluanov added that bank tax breaks the plan for joint steps on Cyprus and that the decision was made without Russia.

China’s economic model, which has delivered a genuine economic miracle over the last 30 years by lifting more people out of poverty than ever before in human history, is increasingly tapped out. While the authorities have been talking about rebalancing the economy since at least 2006, BNP Paribas' Richard Iley notes that China’s macroeconomic imbalances have become progressively more extreme. The economy now has an investment share of ~48% of GDP, which, Iley explains, no other economy has been able to reach, let alone sustain. Unsurprisingly diminishing returns are increasingly apparent. Largely uneconomic investments in sectors already suffering overcapacity, such as real estate and steel, continue to accelerate, fuelling exponential growth in energy consumption and producing increasingly unbearable levels of pollution as we discussed here. Despite the long-term gulf between reform rhetoric and concrete action, ‘hype’ at least continues to spring eternal.

Following Part 1's discussion of America's Dangerous Drift, and Part 2's succincy summation of why America needs a Grand Strategy, today's Part 3 concludes with a discussion of the 'choice' American leaders have: "A decline in America’s leadership role and the emergence of a highly unstable world is a serious possibility. In reality, decline is not a foregone conclusion but a deliberate political choice that builds from a failure to define what matters most to the nation." When we step back from the language and imperatives of grand strategy, the case for the United States to rethink its grand strategy is fundamentally simple. It is designed to meet serious threats while creating and taking advantage of strategic opportunities. To continue on the present course of "drifting" from crisis to crisis effectively invites powers to believe that America is in decline. Worse, Americans, too, might believe wrongly that the nation’s decline is inevitable. If we are to assure America’s future security and prosperity, we need a new national grand strategy that harnesses America’s spirit, sense of optimism, and perseverance to help the nation meet the challenges and grasp the opportunities of this era. When we think about the alternatives, the United States simply has no choice.