Australia

• Lawmakers, Obama in last chance talks on "fiscal cliff" (Reuters)
• Obama Summons Congress Leaders as Budget Deadline Nears (BBG)
• Hopes for fiscal cliff deal fade  (FT)
• Iran starts navy drills in Strait of Hormuz (Reuters)
• Looming Port Strike Deadline Pressures Obama to Intervene (BBG)
• Home Depot to Lowe’s Busiest Season Threatened by Strike (BBG)
• 'Whale' Capsized Banks' Rule Effort (WSJ)
• China tightens Internet controls, legalizes post deletion (Reuters)
• Goldman Sachs Buying Japan’s Exporters on Abe Policy Bets (BBG) and preparing one Goldman alumnus to take over the BOJ
• IPOs Slump to Lowest Level Since Financial Crisis After Facebook (BBG)
• Blackstone seen sticking with SAC despite insider trading probe (Reuters) - what a shock
• Mistry at Tata Helm as Investors Query $500 Billion Goal (BBG)
• High-Speed Traders Race to Fend Off Regulators (WSJ)

On this lackluster Boxing Day dominated by illiquid moves in every asset class, we thought a few succinct minutes spent comprehending the US and European government policies of social welfare and their outcomes was time well spent. Canadian MP Pierre Poilievre delivers a rather epic speech destroying the myths of US and European 'wealth' noting that "Once the US citizen is in debt, the US government encourages them to stay in debt," noting that "the US government encouraged millions of Americans to spend money they did not have on homes they could not afford using loans they could never repay and then gave them a tax incentive never to repay it." His message, delivered seamlessly, notes the inordinate rise in the cost of all this borrowing, adding that "through debt interest alone, soon the US taxpayer will be funding 100% of the Chinese Military complex." From Dependence to Debt to the Welfare State and back to Dependence, this presentation puts incredible context on the false hope so many believe in the US and Europe. Everyone takes, nobody makes, work doesn't pay, indulgence doesn't cost, money is free, and money is worthless. Must watch.

• IMF Demands Partial Default for Cyprus (Spiegel)
• Boehner's 'Plan B' Gets Pushback (WSJ)
• Beijing criticises US ‘political checks’ (FT)
• White House Said to Tell Business Groups Talks Stall (BBG)
• NYSE tries to get hitched again: IntercontinentalExchange in talks to buy NYSE (Reuters) -> N-Ice coming?
• Greece faces ‘make or break’ year (FT)
• Fed rejects idea of consensus forecasts, "maybe forever": Fisher (Reuters)
• Rajoy Drives Spanish Revolution With Low-Cost Manufacture (BBG)
• Italian Senate Set for Budget Vote Before Monti Resigns (BBG)
• BOJ Loosens With Pledge to Review Inflation Objectives (BBG)
• Bowing To Abe, BOJ To Review Price Goal (WSJ)

• Republicans put squeeze on Obama in "fiscal cliff" talks (Reuters)
• Inquiry harshly criticizes State Department over Benghazi attack (Reuters)
• Banks See Biggest Returns Since ’03 as Employees Suffer (BBG)
• Italy president urges election be held on time (Reuters)
• Bank of England Says Sterling Hurting Economy (WSJ) - there's an app for that, it's called a Goldman BOE chairman
• China slowdown hits Indonesian farmers (FT)
• China dispute hits Japanese exports (FT)
• Market to get even more monopolized by the HFT king: Getco wins Knight with $2 bln sweetened offer (Reuters)
• MF Global Cases Focus on 'Letters' (WSJ)
• UBS fined $1.5 billion in growing Libor scandal (Reuters)
• Spotlight swings to interdealer brokers (FT)
• China Widens Access to Capital Markets (WSJ)
• With Instagram, Facebook Spars With Twitter (WSJ)

The US dollar is mixed. Softer against the European complex, but firmer against the dollar bloc. It is essentially flat against the yen. Equity markets are advancing and the Nikkei, which gapped above the 3-year downtrend line yesterday, extended its gains by another 1%. Spanish and Italian bond yields are lower. Japanese yields continue to edge higher, with the long-end of the curve continuing to steepen gradually. The 10-20 year spread is near a 13-year high, for example. The BOJ's Shirakawa met with Abe briefly (20 minutes, according to press reports). The last big event of the week is the BOJ meeting that concludes on Thursday.

The terrible massacre committed by a mentally-disturbed man in Newtown, Connecticut last Friday has prompted lots and lots of calls for gun control in the United States, as well as some calls for more help for the mentally ill. There is little doubt that in the coming years the gun-show loophole will be closed and Canadian-style longer waiting periods will be introduced. Semi-automatic weapons may well be banned. Buyback programs may be attempted. The Supreme Court might well even be stacked to achieve a majority that interprets away individual gun rights.But America already has huge quantities of guns, far more than anywhere in the world. Obama might cry for Americans in Newtown, but where are his tears for the Pakistani and Yemeni children he has slaughtered? And what about for the many victims who died as a result of thousands guns shipped by the US government to the Mexican drug cartels via Fast and Furious? America might be ready to implement gun control. I wish America was ready to implement drone control.

Just as Byron Wien publishes his ten surprises for the upcoming year, Morgan Stanley has created a heady list of seventeen macro surprises across all countries they cover that depict plausible possible outcomes that would represent a meaningful surprise to the prevailing consensus. From the "return of inflation" to 'Brixit' and from the "BoJ buying Euro-are bonds" to a "US housing recovery stall out" - these seventeen succinctly written paragraphs provide much food for thought as we enter 2013.

With gold and silver down this morning - following a mysterious vertical plunge last night (once again) - we thought ConvergEx's Nick Colas' timely discussion of gold was worthwhile. As he notes, Gold is the ultimate personality test for investors.  Some hate it, excoriating its adherents for their lack of faith in human ingenuity – gold has been valuable since before humans could write. And some swear by the yellow metal, in the belief that it is the last vestige of rationality in a world of financial assets manipulated by central banks and opaque trading venues.  What gets lost in the wash is that gold is a commodity and can be analyzed as such. On that basis, here is the 'Top 10' list of real-world fundamentals for gold.

Glenn Stevens, RBA Governor: "Central banks can provide liquidity to shore up financial stability and they can buy time for borrowers to adjust, but they cannot, in the end, put government finances on a sustainable course... They can't shield people from the implications of having mis-assessed their own lifetime budget constraints and therefore having consumed too much."

All that glitters...

• Bundesbank cuts growth outlook as crisis bites (Reuters)
• Strong quake hits off Japan near Fukushima disaster zone (Reuters)
• Greece to Buy Debt It Already Owns to Reach Target (BBG)
• Draghi’s Go-to ECB Seen Risking Credibility Through Overload (BBG)
• Judge urges Apple and Samsung ‘peace’  (FT) ... Alas only the US government has a Magic Money Tree; others need profit
• Fed Exit Plan May Be Redrawn as Assets Near $3 Trillion (BBG)... make that $5 trillion this time in 2014
• Level Global, SAC Fund Managers Ruled Co-Conspirators (BBG)
• Egypt demonstrators reject Mursi call for dialogue (Reuters)
• Japanese Dealerships in China Retrench in Wake of Dispute (BBG)
• Apparel factory fire reveals big brands' shadowy supply chainsa (Reuters)
• Republican Defectors Weigh Deal on Tax-Rate Increase (BBG)

A consolidative tone threatening to emerging in the foreign exchange market, as prices churn awaiting not only today's press conference following the ECB meeting, but also tomorrow's US employment data and prospects for an expansion of QE3+ at next week's FOMC meeting. 

Five major central banks were to meet this week, with only the Reserve Bank of Australia poised to act.  They did cut rates, but the accompanying statement did not tip the hand of the next move.  The market took advantage of the jobs data's favorable optics to reduce the likelihood of a follow up cut in February to about 50/50.  

The details of the employment report were really weaker than it appeared.  The 13.9k increase in jobs is misleading as it was driven exclusively by part-time jobs.  Full time work actually fell 4.2k, the first decline in four months.  The unexpected decline in the unemployment rate to 5.2% from 5.4% in Sept and Oct was a function of a decline in the participation rate.  The Australian dollar has traded now (barely) on both sides of yesterday's range.  Offers in the $1.05 area continue to slow the Aussie's ascent.

All the government subsidies in the world will not revive the construction industry - only demand from increasing wealth will.  The guest commentary below offers a vivid picture of the economic and regulatory factors weighing on homebuilders these days. The author is Wayne Siggard, who builds mansions for the super-rich.  A UCLA law graduate, Wayne worked for Bechtel Financing Services and was self-employed as an investment banker doing private placements in oil and gas and alternative energy project financing.  When oil hit $10/bbl in 1985, he went into the homebuilding business, turning an avocation into an occupation. His real estate operations, including land development, have primarily been in California and Utah.  Wayne lived for several years in Italy and Switzerland and speaks many languages.

Today the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the its rates by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.0 percent, as panic set in that the resources boom is fading quicker than anticipated. Note that rates have not been this low since the aftermath of the global financial crisis.  This strategic move was done in effort to rekindle the demand in some of the country’s weaker sectors in hopes that they would offset the rapid decline in the mining sector.

Yesterday we noted that India was preparing to send its Navy into the South China Sea - defending its mineral rights from China's increasingly vociferous presence. The Philippines also expressed concern. Today, it's Vietnam's turn as Reuters reports the nation is condemning China's "serious violation of sovereignty" as Chinese boats sabotaged Vietnamese State oil and gas company - PetroVietnam's operations (by severing a seismic cable). The actions stem from China's 'belief' that two Vietnamese-owned archipelagos (Spratly and Paracel Islands) are theirs. While China (who oppose unilateral oil and gas development in disputed waters) argued somewhat comically that "Chinese fishing boats were operating normally," the Vietnamese saw it as "blatant violation of Vietnamese waters," and are deploying marine police and a border force to stop foreign vessels. As one analyst noted, "It's going to lead to friction."