Switzerland

In contrast with better news from macro data, the negotiations about the next Greek package intensified and this will likely remain the key focus in the upcoming week. On one hand, the present value reduction in a PSI has still not been formally agreed. On the other, the Greek Government still has to commit to more reforms in order for the Troika to agree to a new program. A key deadline for this commitment is on Monday at 11am local time in Athens. Eurogroup President Juncker has talked openly about the possibility of a default on Saturday in the German weekly Der Spiegel. Beyond the ongoing focus on Greece, the week sees a relatively heavy concentration in central bank meetings, including the RBA, ECB, BOE, Poland, Indonesia and a few others. On the data side, the focus is likely on the December IP numbers due in a number of countries, including in some key Eurozone countries (Germany, Italy, France).

€65 billion—20% of GDP—have been yanked out of Greek bank accounts, and political positioning for the “afterwards” has begun....

Watch out for the Rhino. 

• Greece's Hazardous Road to Restructuring (WSJ)
• Spain Coaxes Banks to Merge to Purge Losses (Bloomberg)
• Brussels Discovers New €15bn Black Hole in Greece's Finances (Guardian)
• UK Recession Predicted to Return (FT)
• Senate OKs insider trading curbs on lawmakers (Reuters)
• China Limits Mortgages for Foreigners (Bloomberg)
• Villagers scramble for fuel in Europe's big chill (Reuters)
• SNB Head Warns of Political Fallout After Crisis (FT)
• Portugal Bond Rout Overstates Greek Likeness (Bloomberg)
• Bernanke Says He Won’t Trade 2% Inflation-Rate Target for More Job Growth (Businessweek)

With the IMF cutting its global growth forecasts and signs of slowing evident in the dramatic contraction in World Trade Volume in the last few months, it is perhaps no surprise that the central banks of the world have embarked upon what Goldman Sachs calls an 'Unprecedented Alignment of Monetary Policy Across Countries'. Our earlier discussion of the European event risk vs global growth expectations dilemma along with last night's comments on the impact of tightening lending standards around the world also confirms that this policy globalization is still going strong and is likely to continue as gaming out the situation (as Goldman has done) left optimal CB strategy as one-in-all-in with no benefit to any from migrating away from the equilibrium of 'we all print together'. Perhaps gold (and silver's) move today (and for the last few months) reflects this sad reality that all your fiat money are belong to us, as nominal prices rise (but underperform PMs) in equities (and risky sovereigns and financials).

• Merkel Seeks to Reassure China (FT)
• German-IMF Rift Stalls Greece Deal (WSJ)
• Survey of Banks Shows a Sharp Cut in Lending in Europe (NYT)
• Bernanke to testify on economy and deficit (AP)
• House votes to freeze congressional, federal pay (WaPo)

Just a matter of when?

• China’s factories in strong start to 2012 (FT)
• Merkel to court Chinese investors (FT)
• States to decide this week on mortgage deal (Reuters)
• Europe is stuck on life support (FT)
• IMF's Thomsen Says Greece Must Step Up Reform (Reuters)
• Tax cuts expiry to slow US growth (FT)
• Government health spending seen hitting $1.8 trillion (Reuters)
• Romney Win in Florida Primary Shows Strength (Bloomberg)
• EU regulator blocks D.Boerse-NYSE merger (Reuters)
• Greek Bondholders said to get GDP Sweetener in Debt Swap Agreement (Bloomberg)
• S. Korea Plans to Buy China Shares (Bloomberg)

• Victory for Merkel Over Fiscal Treaty (FT)
• Everyone wants a mediterranean colony: China's NDRC Delegation Visit Greece to Boost Economic Ties (Xinhua)
• As Florida votes, Romney seems in driver's seat (Reuters)
• Greece’s Papademos Seek On Debt Deal by End of Week (Reuters)
• Banks Set to Double Crisis Loans From ECB (FT) - as Zero Hedge predicted two weeks ago
• S&P: Doubling Sales Tax Won’t Help Japan Enough (Bloomberg)
• Toshiba cuts outlook after Q3 profit tumbles (Reuters)
• Blackrock’s Doll says Fed’s QE3 is Unlikely, In Contrast to Pimco’s Gross (Bloomberg)

All you need to read.

Ok, I exaggerate. But that’s my cynical first impression after finding the following diagram in the briefing book for the gathering of the good and the great at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. As you can see “Severe income disparity” is #1 on the Top 5 risks list this year, after having failed to make the short list for the preceding 5 years. Now it’s not as though the attendees of Davos were completely inattentive to the economic plight of the less fortunate all this time. “Economic disparities” was on last year’s laundry list of risks and was featured prominently in the executive summary of 2011's report. But the urgency has been ratcheted up quite a bit this year: note the new modifier “severe” and the use of the more specific “income” rather than “economic”. But wait, there’s more.

• Greek Debt Wrangle May Pull Default Trigger (Bloomberg)
• Italy Sells Maximum EU11 Billion of Bills (Bloomberg)
• Romney Demands Gingrich Apology on Immigration (Bloomberg)
• China’s Residential Prices Need to Decline 30%, Lawmaker Says (Bloomberg)
• EU Red-Flags 'Volcker' (WSJ)
• EU Official Sees Bailout-Fund Boost (WSJ)
• EU Delays Bank Bond Writedown Plans Until Fiscal Crisis Abates (Bloomberg)
• Germany Poised to Woo U.K. With Transaction Tax Alternative (Bloomberg)
• Ahmadinejad: Iran Ready to Renew Nuclear Talks (Bloomberg)
• Monti Takes On Italian Bureaucracy in Latest Policy Push to Revamp Economy (Bloomberg)

Remember that one keyword that oddly enough never made it's way into the president's largely recycled SOTU address - "Solyndra"? It is about to make a double or nothing repeat appearance, now that Ener1, another company that was backed by Obama, this time a electric car battery-maker, has filed for bankruptcy. Net result: taxpayers lose $118.5 million. The irony is that while Solyndra may have been missing from the SOTU, Ener1 made an indirect appearance: "In three years, our partnership with the private sector has already positioned America to be the world’s leading manufacturer of high-tech batteries." Uh, no. Actually, the correct phrasing is: "...positioned America to be the world's leading manufacturer of insolvent, bloated subsidized entities that are proof central planning at any level does not work but we can keep doing the same idiocy over and over hoping the final result will actually be different eventually." We can't wait to find out just which of Obama's handlers was may have been responsible for this latest gross capital misallocation. In the meantime, the 1,700 jobs "created" with the fake creation of Ener1, have just been lost. Yet nothing, nothing, compares to the irony from the statement issued by the CEO when the company proudly received taxpayer funding on its merry way to insolvency: " "These government incentives will provide a powerful stimulus to a vital industry and help ensure that the batteries eventually powering millions of cars around the world carry the stamp 'Made in the USA'." Brilliant - and no, they are laughing with us, not at us.

Back on December 30, we noted that a little known name in the US, but very well known in Europe, PetroPlus is having significant solvency issues as banks froze a $1 billion revolver. Less than a month later the situation has proceeded to the next evolutionary step, as Europe's largest refiner by capacity has announced it will file for bankruptcy protection. And while operations should not be impacted, the fact that this comes just as Europe imposes an oil embargo on Iran, virtually guarantees that the continent's gasoline prices, already among the highest in the world are likely to set off even higher, paradoxically even as end-market demand is at lows. The bankruptcy will also guarantee that European initial jobless claims will plunge, especially if the BLS opens a Brussels office and applies its own very unique brand of "logic" to Europe.

There are consequences to this policy.