Creditors

A warning by the SEC in mid-March 2011 regarding repo-to-maturity trades suggests otherwise.  

• Greece's Fringe Parties Surge Amid Bailout Ire (WSJ)
• ECB fails to stem reduction in lending (FT)
• More Twists for Spanish Banks (WSJ)
• Banks use ECB cash to buy bonds, lend less to firms (IFR)
• UK still long way off pre-crisis growth – King (Reuters)
• Dublin confident of ECB deal to defer payment (FT)
• Goldman's European derivatives revenue soars (Reuters)
• Japan Faces Tax Battle as DPJ Finishes Plan on Sales Levy (Bloomberg)
• Insurance Mandate Splits US Court (FT)

Last week, Bernanke's first (of four) lecture at George Washington University was entirely dedicated to attempting to discredit gold and all that sound money stands for. The propaganda machine was so transparent that it hardly merited a response: those away from the MSM know the truth (which, simply said, is the "creation" of over $100 trillion in derivatives in just the first six months of 2011 to a record $707 trillion - how does one spell stability?), while those who rely on mainstream media for the news would never see an alternative perspective - financial firms are not among the top three sources of advertising dollars for legacy media for nothing. Still, for those who feel like the Chairman's word need to be challenged, the following extensive and annotated reply by QBAMCO's Paul Brodsky makes a mockery of the Fed's full on assault on gold, and any attempts by the subservient media to defend it. To wit: "Has anyone asked why so many powerful people are going out of their way to discredit an inert rock? We think it comes down to maintaining power and control over commercial economies. After professionally watching Fed chairmen cajole, threaten, persuade and manage sentiment in the markets since 1982, we argue this latest permutation is understandable, predictable and, for those willing to bet on the Fed’s ultimate success in saving the banking system (as we are), quite exciting.... Gold is no longer being ignored and gold holders are no longer being laughed at. “The Powers That Be” seem to have begun a campaign to discredit gold."

Gold may not be 'money' to the Chairman, but it sure is to Turkey. The WSJ reports that "The Turkish government, facing a bloated current-account deficit that threatens to derail the country's rapid expansion, is trying to persuade Turks to transfer their vast personal holdings of gold into the country's banking system." The reason: "The push to tap into the individual gold reserves—the traditional form of savings here—is part of Ankara's efforts to reduce a finance gap that is currently about 10% of gross domestic product." In other words, "sequester" the population's hard assets (politely of course), and convert these to paper to fund the country's creditors, both foreign and domestic. Mostly foreign. In other words, Southeast Europe is slowing becoming the staging ground for the 21st century equivalent of Executive Order 6102, where first Greek, and now Turkish gold, is about to be pulled from point A to point B, where point B is some top secret vault deep under London.

That Diamond Foods is a dead man walking has been known for a while. Today we merely got the latest confirmation, after the company announced that it has reached a forbearance deal with its lender through June 18, in exchange for suspending dividends (duh) as well as a one time 25 bps loan fee, and an interest increase by 75 bps until June 18. At that point the company will still have to find a replacement facility, or do another forebearance deal which extracts even more equity value and hands it on a silver platter to secured creditors... kinda like Greece. Curiously, moments before close the market reacted like a stung HFT algo (see chart below) to a headline from the WSJ that "Diamond Foods in Talks With PE for Minority Investment." Sure it is - the problem is that any minority investment at this point will likely come below market, as this is not an M&A deal but a vulture equity financing. In fact, we would not be surprised if the lenders are contemplated a debt for equity exchange. However, for it to make sense, the stock would have to be far lower. Anyway, the stock reopens at 5:15pm. Stay tuned.

Going into the US open, most major European bourses are trading in modest positive territory this follows the publication of a Goldman Sachs research note titled “The Long Good Buy” in which the bank outlines its thoughts that equities will embark on an upward trend over the next few years, recommending dropping fixed-income securities. We have also seen the publication of the Bank of England’s minutes from March’s rate-setting meeting in which board members voted unanimously to keep the base rate unchanged at 0.50%; however there was some indecision concerning the total QE, with members Miles and Posen voting for a further increase to GBP 350bln, however the other seven members voted against the increase. Following the release, GBP/USD spiked lower 35 pips but has regained in recent trade and is now in positive territory.  Looking elsewhere in the session, UK Chancellor Osborne will present his budget for this financial year at 1230GMT. We will also be looking out for US existing home sales and the weekly DOE inventories.

Fourteen months, one MF Global carcass and $1.6 billion in "vaporized" funds later, does the CFTC still regulate the futures markets by fax?

All you need to read.

Why MF Global might well be the template for future looting.

All you need to read.

MF Global's creditors (and clients) in Europe, and everywhere else, have many reasons to be furious. Now those in Europe have one more to add to their list of grievances: a complete and totally public disclosure, courtesy of KPMG, of not only how much they are owed, but their mailing, and in many cases, home address. In other words, not only will these individuals not receive their full claims in the insolvent entity whose primary specialty as it turned out was rehypothecating what little assets it did have, but now have to worry about the taxman coming after them.... As well as promptly changing their home address. One party, however, that will hardly mind, is JPMorgan which is supposedly owed just over €100 million. Luckily for them, they already quote unquote collected the (client) money.

A gigantic tsunami of unfunded pension obligations is coming.

Greece just defaulted. Again. No surprise - the country has been in default half the time since 1820. Curiously, Greece is also the first recorded sovereign defaulted as Art Cashin notes in his piece today. He also reminds us that the UK's plans to return the 100 Year bond are nothing new. In fact, the Consol, or the UK perpetual, was around in the 1700's. Things did not work out very well back then...

In the spirit of George Orwell’s Animal Farm commandment: “all animals are equal, but some animals are more equal then others” comes the galling news that bankruptcy trustee, Louis Freeh, could approve the defunct, MF Global to pay bonuses to certain senior executives. This, despite the fact that nearly $1.6 billion of customer funds remains “missing” or otherwise partially accounted for, yet beyond the reach of those customers, perhaps forever, since before the firm declared bankruptcy on October 31, 2011... The Orwellian nature of finance is spiraling out of control. It was acutely demonstrated during the fall 2008, merge-and-be-bailed period, and subsequently, through mainstream acceptance that “too big to fail” validates the subsidization of reckless banking practices (bail first, ask questions or consider tepid regulation later), and the European debacle. Three wrinkles of audacity underscore the potential MF Global bonus approvals.

Many lessons are available to learn from the Greek debt crisis. Several more are probably to come as the intended and unintended consequences of what the Europeans have done begin to infect the bond markets. I point this morning to the vast differences now between the ownership of American debt and European debt and, as the immediate effects of the LTRO begin to wear off, several dawning realizations that I think will cause European debt to gap out against American debt regardless of the yields of Treasuries.