Trade Balance

But... but... the VIX said everything is ok, and European rates were the lowest they have been in centuries... How can something possibly go wrong?

It just did.

A look at the investment climate through the currency market and upcoming events and data.

Q2 GDP hope remains as a significant surge in exports of automotive vehicles, parts, and engines stalled the collapsing trade balance for a very modest beat (still a $44.4 billion deficit). This is the 2nd biggest trade deficit since November 2012 as imports dropped $0.7bn and exports rose $2.0 billion. Saudi Arabia, interestingly, was largely responsible for the improvement in the trade balance as the deficit dropped from $4bn to $2.3bn. Hope springs eternal but the deficit is still considerably more of a drag on Q2 GDP than it was on Q1 GDP. Initial jobless claims continue to go nowhere but missed for the 5th week in a row).

• Citigroup 190K
• HSBC 200K
• Goldman Sachs 210K
• UBS 215K
• JP Morgan 220K
• Deutsche Bank 225K
• Bank of America 225K
• Barclays 250K

• Obama Decries Big Bonuses at Bank Trading Desks as Risky  (BBG)
• India central bank seeks to swap gold to improve reserves quality (Reuters)
• There goes Q3 GDP: Arthur Strengthens to Become First Atlantic Hurricane (BBG)
• Airports Serving U.S. Tighten Checks on Stealth-Bomb Threat (BBG)
• Fear, cash shortages hinder fight against Ebola outbreak (Reuters)
• Brent Declines as Libya Rebels Say Ports Are Open (BBG)
• Shiites Train for Battle in Iraqi Holy City (WSJ)
• Dimon’s Cancer Has 90% Cure Rate With Demanding Therapy (BBG)
• Goldman says client data leaked, wants Google to delete email (Reuters)
• ECB Watchers in the Dark Look to Draghi for Illumination (BBG)

Once again, US equity futures are roughly unchanged (while Treasurys have seen a surprising overnight bid coming out of Asia) ahead of an avalanche of macroeconomic news both in Europe, where the ECB will deliver its monthly message, and in the US where we will shortly get jobless claims, ISM non-manufacturing, trade balance, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, average earnings, Markit U.S. composite PMI, Markit U.S. services PMI due later. Of course the most important number is the June NFP payrolls and to a lesser extent the unemployment rate, which consensus expects at 215K and 6.3%, although the whisper number is about 30K higher following yesterday's massive ADP outlier. Nonetheless, keep in mind that a) ADP is a horrible predictor of NFP, with a 40K average absolute error rate and b) in December the initial ADP print was 151K higher than the nonfarms. Those watching inflation will be far more focused on hourly earnings, expected to rise 0.2% M/M and 1.9% Y/Y. Should wages continue to stagnate and decline on a real basis, expect to hear the "stagflation" word much more often in the coming weeks.

BTFATH! That was the motto overnight, when despite a plethora of mixed final manufacturing data across the globe (weaker Japan, Europe; stronger China, UK) the USDJPY carry-trade has been a one-way street up and to the right, and saw its first overnight buying scramble in weeks (as opposed to the US daytime trading session, when the JPY is sold off to push carry-driven stocks higher). Low volumes have only facilitated the now usual buying at the all time highs: The last trading day of 1H14 failed to bring with it any volatility associated with month-end and half-end portfolio rebalancing - yesterday’s S&P 500 volumes were about half that compared to the last trading day of 1H13.

The holiday shortened, and very busy, week includes the following highlights: [on Monday] US Chicago PMI; [on Tuesday] US ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, and Vehicle Sales, in addition to a host of PMI Manufacturing in various countries; [on Wednesday] US ADP Employment, Factory Orders; [on Thursday] US Non-farm Payrolls and Unemployment, MP Decisions by ECB and Riksbank, in addition to various Services and Composite PMIs; [on Friday] US holiday, Germany Factory Orders and Sweden IP.

A thumbnail sketch of the main events of during the week ahead.

While Ben Bernanke once said that "gold is not money", it appears China, Dubai, and most especially Turkey and Iran would disagree. On the heels of the "Petrogold" wars we discussed previously, a leaked report of a secret plot to 'juice' Turkey's trade balance exposes gold at the heart of "one of the most complex illicit finance schemes [prosecutors] have seen."

This week brings PMIs (US and Euro area ‘flash’) and inflation (US PCE, CPI in Germany, Spain, and Japan). Among other releases, next week in DMs includes [on Monday] PMIs in US (June P), Euro Area Composite (expect 52.8, a touch below previous) and Japan; [on Tuesday] US home prices (FHFA and S&P/Case Shiller) and Consumer Confidence (expect 83.5, same as consensus), Germany IFO; [on Wednesday] US Durable Goods Orders (expect -0.50%, at touch below consensus) and real GDP 1Q anniversary. 3rd (expect -2.0%) and Personal Consumption 1Q (expect 2.0%), and confidence indicators in Germany, France and Italy; [on Thursday] US PCE price index (expect 0.20%), Personal Income and Spending, and GS Analyst Index; and [on Friday] Reuters/U. Michigan Confidence (expect slight improvement to 82, same as consensus), GDP 1Q in France and UK (expect 0.8% and 0.9% yoy, respectively), and CPI in Germany, Italy, Spain and Japan.

This week brings some key events and releases in DMs, including US FOMC (Goldman expects $10bn tapering, in line with consensus), IP, CPI, and Philly Fed (expect 13.5), EA final May CPI (expect 0.50%), and MP decisions in Norway and Switzerland (expect no change in either).

It is hard not to gloat when reading the latest embarrassing mea culpa from Bank of America's Ethan Harris, who incidentally came out with an "above consensus" forecast late last year, and has been crushed month after month as the hard data has lobbed off percentage from his irrationally exuberant growth forecast for every quarter, and now, the year. As a result, BofA has finally thrown in the towel, and tongue in cheekly admits it was wrong, as follows: "our tracking model now suggests growth of -1.9% in 1Q and 4.0% in 2Q for a first half average of just 1.0%.... Momentum is weak, but fundamentals are strong. We have lowered second half growth to 3.0% from 3.4%."

With the VIX smashing last week to levels not seen since early 2007, the S&P rising to all time highs, and European core and peripheral bond yield this morning touching historic lows, it would appear that the "market" has priced in every possible negative outcome. Which, as Goldman showed over the weekend is clearly not the case at least as investors are concerned who continued to sell stocks across the board in May even as the market broke out to record levels making many wonder who is buying stocks (for more read here)? Expect more of the same, and with some luck we will get a single digit VIX in the coming days as newsflow slows down following payrolls week and ahead of the world cup start in Brazil.

While Japan's Trade balance missed expectations once again (bigger deficit than hoped or expected), the flashing red headlines of the night belong to Japan's 1.6% QoQ GDP print (better than expected)  - the 'best growth' since Q3 2011. The initial reaction was JPY weaker, which meant Nikkei higher (and oddly JGBs rallied too). But... and it's a big but... Japanese consumer spending shot up by 2.2% in Q1 - the biggest on record... matched only by Q1 1997, the quarter before Japan's last tax-hike decision. What happened the quarter after that? Take a look...