... which was the only earnings season in history when surprises saw perverse rather than intuitive reactions – beats were not rewarded and misses were not penalized."
The list includes about $3.9 billion in outstanding CMBS loan balance. That does not include loans for which deed-in-lieu was discussed but for which the asset has already gone REO.
The combination of a stimulus stalemate, Tyrannical responses to a renewed COVID case wave (note the death rate remains flat), and the fading hopes for a 'blue wave' are all triple-whammying market optimism.
A "bear" case which results in an exponential surge in new cases would almost certainly lead to another economic shutdown, especially under a Biden presidency.
... despite low debt-to-income ratios, the percentage of government transfer payments (social benefits) now comprises 1/4th of real disposable incomes.
"An orderly Trump victory as the most favorable outcome for equities (upside to ~3,900).... A ‘Blue Sweep’ scenario is expected to be mostly neutral in the short term..."
