"We know there is a very serious debate being held across fixed income departments in the investment community: just how much and how quickly will the dramatic spread compression of the last few years be undone by the end of the bond bull market?"
2016 ended with a 13% YoY decline in initial jobless claims. However, thanks to a late-year surge (which we are sure will be excused away with 'weather' of some sort), 2017 saw initial claims rise 6.5% YoY.
"Trump is working too hard to impress members of Congress - most of whom were not supportive of him even just weeks before the election - and would gladly "stab him in the back" at their first opportunity."
U.S. futures are back in the green, while Asian and European stocks were mixed after worries about a U.S.-led trade war put world stocks at risk of their first two day loss of the year on Thursday, while bond markets bounced as China poured cold water on reports that it might stop buying U.S. debt.