In an absolute stunner of an announcement Bank of Countrywide Lynch's top notch head of economoplagiarism follows in Jan Hatzius' coattails once again and lowers Q1 GDP. All of Wall Street will promptly follow as it always does.
From Bank of America
Trimming 1Q GDP
Our tracking model is pointing to ever weaker Q1 GDP growth. In the past week, weak construction and consumption data added to the bad news. In nominal terms consumption increased 0.7% in February, but with the deflator up 0.4%, that implied a modest 0.3% real gain. Moreover, base effects are hurting the quarter: weak growth in December and January started the quarter off on a bad note. As Table1 shows, even if we get a modest upward revision to the prior two months of 0.2 ppts cumulatively and a solid 0.3 pp gain in March, annualized consumption growth will only be 2.3% in Q1. Even with generous assumptions for the missing data, we estimate Q1 GDP growth is adding up to just 1.5%. The weaker first quarter growth pulls down our full year GDP growth rate by a tenth to 2.5%.