BP stock is down about .8% in pre-market. A bit of a surprise given that they finally plugged this thing. There is other news that may be trumping the action.

There is a new “hard” estimate on the amount of oil that was leaked. The number is 205,800,000 gallons. That is 4.9mm brls. If you applied a fine of $4,300 per brl., it comes to $21b.

There will be a fine. Using the $4,300 number may be overstating things. But there is no reason to expect the Administration to be lenient either. A slap on the wrist is the most unlikely outcome.

Say it is $20b. There is another $10b that has been committed. And then there are the direct costs. It could get to $40b.

That would not sink BP. But it will kill the dividend for a long time. Sell on the news?