CMA Issues Its Q4 Global Sovereign Debt Credit Risk Report

All you wanted to know about why the world is bankrupt in many pretty charts.

Some findings.

Top 5 riskest countries:

  • Greece
  • Venezuela
  • Ireland
  • Portugal
  • Argentina

Top 10 least risky sovereigns:

  • Norway
  • Finland
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • USA

Most deteriorating countries in the quarter:

  • Belgium
  • Spain
  • Germany

Most improved countries in the quarter:

  • Argentina
  • Latvia
  • Abu Dhabi

Broad notes:

Greece, widening 32% in Q4, tips Venezuela off the top spot as the world’s most risky sovereign.

  • Ireland enters the top five following the bail out the its banking system and a subsequent widening of 35%.
  • Concerns that Spain has some similarities to Ireland – a debt-driven property boom bust – helped drive the cost of protection wider by 50% and into the top 10 most risky. China’s support for Spain both in terms of long-term debt holding and imports will help support one of the most important economies in the region.
  • Portugal also widened – by a more modest 22% in Q4 – but the cost of protection in Portuguese banks remains high.
  • Argentina tightened nearly 20% this quarter as it pledges to repay the Paris Club of investors.
  • Ukraine is the best yearly performer, tightening 59% on the year.
  • Iraq remains very illiquid – see special section on liquidity changes.

Full report:



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