3 Month Euro Libor continue rising: for the first time August 2009 the rate is over 0.8%, hitting 0.80813%. More tremblingly, the far less manipulated OIS spread (no trimming of outlier percentiles) also jumped by an even greater amount, thus actually pushing the Libor-OIS spread down to 0.33331%. Another indication of the sudden EUR scarcity which both we and Nic Lenoir discussed in depth last week, is the plunge in the allocation by European banks toward the ECB's deposit facility: after hitting an all time record a month ago at €384 billion, a series of liquidity withdrawal actions have pushed this number to just over €58 billion: the scarcity of euros within the financial system is starting to be felt everywhere as banks no longer even have an excess of cash to deposit for risk free "storage." Market News describes this deterioration in liquidity as follows: "Eurozone interbank markets are likely to be dominated this week by speculation about, and the eventual publication Friday, of the EU Commission's bank stress tests. There are concerns Irish banks, German Landesbanks and the Spanish Caja could all perform badly in the tests." Luckily, all is good in Greece, where one version of G-Pap (the finance minister) announced earlier that all banks are expected to pass with flying colors. Somehow he said that with a straight face, and without breaking out in hysterical laughter.
Below is 3 Month Libor over the past year:
A chart demonstrating the abolsulte and relative spread between Libor and OIS:
And a blown up chart of OIS: