Markets in a Flash
· Asian equity markets closed down across the board last night. The Nikkei was down -1.64%, while the Shanghai index was down -0.4%.
· European equity markets are falling this morning ahead of the US GDP figures. The FTSE 100 is down -0.57% at lunchtime London time.
· Commodities are mixed in today trading session. Oil is falling back in correlation with equities while Gold is gaining as investors find safety.
· The JPY seems strong today making gains against the USD, EUR and GBP.
· The EUR/USD and the GBP/USD are both down as investors sought safety in the greenback as money come out of the equity markets.
· US equity futures are down less than 0.5% suggesting the equity markets are going to open lower, but this will be heavily affected by the US economic data.
News Focus
The news focus today is on the US GDP figure. The figure is the big mover of the markets on the last trading day of the week. The Employment Cost Index and Consumer Sentiment will also play parts in directing the markets.
Just Released
0830ET – GDP
Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR
Previous 2.7 % Consensus 2.5 %
Consensus Range 1.0 % to 3.4 % Actual 2.4 %
The GDP figure of 2.4% is worse than expected. It is not much lower than the expected figure of 2.5% but will put bearish forces on the markets as it shows the economy is not growing as fast as first thought. This is the big figure of the day and should mean that the equity markets fall when they open and should weaken the USD as the economy is weaker than thought.
0830ET – Employment Cost Index
ECI - Q/Q change
Previous 0.6 % Consensus 0.4%
Consensus Range 0.3 % to 0.6 % Actual 0.5 %
This measure of labour costs has shown today that employers are paying more than expected for labour. This has come in higher than expected.
Coming up Today
0945ET – Chicago PMI
Previous 59.1 Consensus 56.0
Consensus Range 51.4 to 58.4
The monthly survey measures business conditions in the Chicago area. A figure above 50 indicates growth, and that is what is expected from today’s figure. If the figure is report under consensus it will put bearish forces on the markets.
0955ET – Consumer Sentiment
Previous 66.5 Consensus 67.0
Consensus Range 57.9 to 68.0
The index measures consumer’s financial positions and attitudes toward the economy. Today’s reading is the second of two due for July 2010. A reported figure below consensus or below previous will put bearish forces on the dollar and the US equity markets as it is an indication in a reduction in consumer spending.
Provided by Pivotfarm.com Support and Resistance Research