I, Reggie Middleton, challenge the mainstream media to think independently. I challenge them to dig down, past the sterilized, politically correct soundbites proffered by popular corporate management, you know - the "in crowd". I challenge the MSM to pull out a calculator, run through the reported numbers, and actually ascertain if what is being proferred by managment actually correlates with the numbers offered to the regulatory agencies. I know some of the finance stuff can get arcane, but their are many objective parties to turn to for assistance. Unfortunately, they are very rarely consulted. I see the favored names in the media, but rarely do I see objective opinion.
Below is a snippet of headlines that I pulled from a Google news search for the phrase JP Morgan.
- msnbc.com - The market's expectations for bank earnings increased after JPMorgan set a high bar Wednesday with a surprisingly strong profit that helped propel the Dow ...
- JPMorgan scores big in latest quarter CNNMoney.com
- JPMorgan Chase Reports Strong Profit of $3.6 Billion New York Times - Oct 14, 2009: A year after the financial system was brought to its knees, a resurgent JPMorgan Chase reported a second consecutive quarter of surprisingly ...
- JPMorgan profits lift Dow past 10000 Financial Times Two Reasons the Dow's Rally to 10000 Will Keep Moving Ahead - A blowout third quarter for jpmorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) sent its shares and more than 600 other stocks 52-week highs. jpmorgan delivered its strongest ...
Keep these newsbites in mind as I go over what I gathered from JP Morgan's latest results.
JP Morgan - 3Q09 Results and Outlook
Our modelled results were pretty much on point with JP Morgan's actual Q309 reported results - see
- JPM Public Excerpt of Forensic Analysis Subscription (free)
- JPM Report (092209) Final - Professional (subscription)
- JPM Forensic Report (092209) Final- Retail (subscription).
The tough economic environment is still gripping the traditional banking operations of US banks and JP Morgan's 3Q09 fail to provide light at the end of the tunnel. As a matter of fact, if is arguable that for those that do perceive a light, it is that of a freight train coming to run over the observer. The credit deterioration impact on JP Morgan, however, has been moderated by the gains from trading revenues which provided more than adequate cushion to absorb the high credit losses from the traditional banking operations.
The major support for JP Morgan came from increase in revenues from principal transactions (including trading revenues of investment banking and corporate/private equity division) which led non-interest revenue to increase to $13.8 billion in 3Q09 from $12.9 billion in 2Q09 and $5.7 billion in 3Q08. In 3Q09, non interest revenues accounted for 52.2% of the total net revenues against 50.6% in 2Q09 and 39.0% in 3Q08.
Revenues from principal transactions increased to $3.8 billion in 3Q09 from $3.1 billion in 2Q09 and negative $2.7 billion in 3Q08. The revenues from principal transactions of investment banking increased to $2.7 billion in 3Q09 from $1.8 billion in 2Q09 and negative $922 million in 3Q08 while the revenues from principal transactions of corporate/private equity division was $1.1 billion in 3Q09 against $1.2 billion in 2Q09 and negative $1.9 billion in 3Q08. The year-on-year change in trading revenues in the investment banking division was primarily owing to gains in the fixed income investments including legacy leveraged loans and mortgage related positions of $400 million against mark downs of $3.6 billion in 3Q08. However, the high trading revenue comes at a cost of high market risk which is reflected in higher VaR levels. The fixed income VaR has increased substantially and stood at $243 million at the end of 3Q09 against $183 million at the end of 3Q08.
Net interest income increased marginally to $12.7 billion from $12.6 billion in 2Q09 and $9.0 billion in 3Q08 primarily on account of improvement in net interest margin. The net interest margin increased to 3.40% in 3Q09 from 3.37% in 2Q09 and 3.06% in 3Q08 as decline in average rates on interest bearing liabilities exceed the decline in yield on interest earning assets.
However, the tough credit environment and cautious lending is leading to a shrinking loan portfolio which is leading shrinking interest earning assets. JP MORGAN's total loan portfolio contracted 14.2% (y-o-y) and 4.0% (q-o-q) in 3Q09. In essence, the most esteemed of the commercial banks is actually shrinking its commercial banking activities as its investment banking and trading activities skyrocket. Most lay persons may not realize that this is not your toaster for a savings account institution anymore. In addition, the significantly greater risks born from rampant trading activities fall directly upon an already insolvent FDIC (see "I'm going to try not to say I told you so...".) and in addition apparently significantly disadvantages those smaller banks that failed to take the outsized risks of their larger, Wall Street connected brethren, see "Big Bank (and the Treasury) vs. Little Bank: Whose risking your tax dollars?".
Credit conditions continue to deteriorate as the delinquency rates continue to climb and the non-performing assets continue to surge. The housing crisis continues to play out in the form of spiralling delinquency rates with the 30 day+ delinquency rates for the consumer lending rising to 5.85% in 3Q09 from 5.22% in 2Q09 and 3.16% in 3Q08. The implications of the rising unemployment are reflected in the rising 30 days+ delinquency rates for credit card which touched 5.99% in 3Q09 against 5.86% in 2Q09 and 3.91% in 3Q08. The acquired WaMu portfolio is deteriorating much more rapidly. The 30 days+ delinquency rates for WaMu's credit card portfolio reached 12.44% in 3Q09 against 11.98% in 2Q09 and 7.53% in 3Q08. The delinquency rate for acquired credit-impaired loans from WaMu transaction was 25.56% in 3Q09 against 23.37% in 2Q09 and 13.21% in 3Q08. These are literally outrageous rates of capital destruction!
Non performing loans increased to $17.7 billion (2.72% of total loans) at the end of 3Q09 from $14.7 billion (2.17% of total loans) at the end of 2Q09 and $6.9 billion (0.91% of total loans) at the end of 3Q08. Total non-performing assets increased to $20.4 billion (3.12% of total loans) from $17.5 billion (2.57% of total loans) at the end of 2Q09 and $9.5 billion (1.25% of total loans) at the end of 3Q08.
As a result of high delinquencies and NPA levels, loan losses continue to remain at high levels and show no signs of easing. The gross charge offs increased to $6.6 billion (annualized charge off rate - 4.1%) in 3Q09 from $6.3 billion (annualized charge off rate - 3.7%) in 2Q09 and $2.7 billion (annualized charge off rate - 1.4%) in 3Q08 while the provisions for loan losses were $8.0 billion in 3Q09 (annualized rate - 4.9%) against $7.9 billion (annualized rate - 4.7%) in 2Q09 and $5.7 billion (annualized rate - 3.0%) in 3Q08.
Non interest expense was $13.4 billion against $13.5 billion in 2Q09 and $11.1 billion in 3Q08. The increase in trading revenues trickled down to the bottom line resulting in net income increasing to $3.5 billion in 3Q09 from net income of $2.7 billion in 2Q09 and a loss of $54 million in 3Q08. Diluted EPS in 3Q09 was $0.82 per share against $0.28 per share in 2Q09 and $0.11 in 3Q08. Excluding these revenues, the JP MORGAN's operations portray a very dismal performance - reflecting shrinking loan base, rising loan losses and declining asset yields with minimum probability for net interest margin increase in short-to-medium term (off Fed's near zero rate interest policy).
Relevant links of interest:
- The Fed Believes Secrecy is in Our Best Interests. Here are Some of the Secrets
- Why Doesn't the Media Take a Truly Independent, Unbiased Look at the Big Banks in the US?
- As the markets climb on top of one big, incestuous pool of concentrated risk...
- Any objective review shows that the big banks are simply too big for the safety of this country
- The ARE trying to kick the bad mortgages down the road, here's proof!
- Why hasn't anybody questioned those rosy stress test results now that the facts have played out?
- A Must Read: An Independent Look into JP Morgan. This contains the "public preview" document (JPM Public Excerpt of Forensic Analysis Subscription), which is free to download.
For those who want to hear alternative, non-MSM love fest discussion of Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan and their proximity to Geithner and the Fed, see this clip from Bill Moyers. If any of you know Jamie Dimon personally, you should fast forward to 6:25 into the video, where it appears as if he seems to have actually threatened a Congressmember. She didn't appear too intimidated, though.
Next up - Wells Fargo!