The trader turned economist turned philosopher has just released a brand new post script chapter to his blockbuster "Fooled By Randomness" - Chapter 1. A First Lesson in the Epistemology of Fat Tony: the Grand
Demarcation Between Sucker and NonSucker, with the following subheader: No use for Nero –Tony is not the elephant – On the difference between sucker and nonsucker – Introduction to social epistemology – The bigger the mistake, the better – Reading for 9,000 years --Don’t buy a coffee machine – Beware the gorilla – Is epistemology the sucker-nonsucker problem?
An entertaining read after a quick casual perusal, with the emphasis on the distinction between market-trend followers (i.e., those the "suckers" that all get slaughtered eventually) and the few who do not succumb to this distinction (and instead hope they can hit the sell button and find a buyer at exactly the same time as everyone else is selling - good luck). Some of Taleb's observations:
- Primo, there are some mistakes that are only made very big, in billions, perhaps even trillions rather than millions.
- Secundo, it is easier to fool a crowd than a single person.
- Terso, never trust an idiot with too much education or information.
Don't tell it to the quants.