From Goldman's Jan Hatzius.
Delinquencies and Foreclosures Rise Again
Data just released by the Mortgage Bankers' Assn show that more than one-tenth of all US mortgages are delinquent, a new record high. Homes in foreclosure edge up slightly as well. One caveat: the increases are driven by seasonal adjustment, which should probably be taken with a grain of salt given the huge shifts in this sector over the past few years.
Mortgage delinquencies: 10.06% in Q1 (Q4: 9.47%).
Mortgages in foreclosure: 4.63% in Q1 (Q4: 4.58%).
1. The Mortgage Bankers' Assn Q1 report shows a further rise in delinquent mortgages, even in the 30-60 day range, somewhat surprising given the improvement in the economy and labor market in recent months. The increases are spread among both fixed and adjustable-rate mortgages, both prime and subprime; only FHA mortgages saw a lower delinquency rate than the prior quarter. One issue here is that the delinquency figures incorporate a positive seasonal adjustment, which should probably be taken with a grain of salt given the seismic shifts in this sector over the past few years (in fact, the MBA itself notes this issue; see http://www.mbaa.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/72906.htm). Before seasonal adjustment, the figures generally show improvement.
2. New foreclosures continue at a substantial rate of 1.23%, the 9th consecutive quarter where at least 1% of mortgages went into foreclosure. The total inventory of foreclosures (non-seasonally adjusted) rose to 4.63% of the stock of housing in the MBA's survey (just over 2 million homes in foreclosure).