It’s hot all over, including the Gulf of Mexico. I keep my eye on a
single buoy, # 42001, 180 miles South of Southwest Pass, LA. (Not too
far from the oil spill). Yesterday the water temperature jumped to over
90 degrees. My unscientific approach is to keep track of these spikes
in water temperature. This is what breeds the big storms. Another key
factor is the El Nino/La Nina cycle. Storms are more likely to develop
during El Nino conditions. Some data on the spikes:
-1975-1994. No readings over 90 degrees.
-1995. An El Nino year. 91.4 degrees reached on 8/18.
20 storms ending with Tanya. Luke was a Cat 4 that wrecked the Leeward
Islands. The QE2 avoided this storm but was hit by a 95-foot rouge wave.
Marilyn, a Cat 3 hit the Virgin Islands hard. Opel was a Cat 3 that hit
Pensacola. The first hit in 20 years.
-1996-No reading over 90 degrees.
-1997. A La Nina year. 90.3 degrees reached on 8/18.
Five named storms. None of any significance. Little damage.
-1998-2001. No readings over 90 degrees.
-2002. A La Nina year. 90.7 degrees reached on both 8/1 and 8/23
No major storms make landfall.
-2003. An El Nino year. 91.4 degrees reached on 8/18.
21 cyclones, 16 named storms. Fabian hit Bermuda, the worst storm in 75 years. Isabel became a Cat 5. It hit NC as a Cat 2 and caused $4b in damage.
-2004. An El Nino year. 90.3 degrees reached on 8/21 and 8/23.
15 named storms. One of the worst years on record. 3,332 deaths $50b in total damages came from Bonnie, Charlie, Francis Ivan and Jeanne.
21 cyclones, 16 named storms. Fabian hit Bermuda, the worst storm in 75 years. Isabel became a Cat 5. It hit NC as a Cat 2 and caused $4b in damage.
-2004. An El Nino year. 90.3 degrees reached on 8/21 and 8/23.
15 named storms. One of the worst years on record. 3,332 deaths $50b in total damages came from Bonnie, Charlie, Francis Ivan and Jeanne.
-2005. An El Nino year.
90.2 degrees on 8/10 and a record breaking 92.8 degrees on 8/22.
The most powerful season in history. 28 Tropical storms, 15 hurricanes, 7 Cat 3+. 4,000 fatalities, $140b in damages. Wilma was the largest storm ever observed. Katrina devastated a city.
2006-2009 No readings over 90 degrees.
2010. We have just crossed to a La Nina condition. 90.4 degrees on 8/9.
This is a look at the El Nino/La Nina cycle. That thin blue line that is just starting to appear on the right just might be timed to save us some headaches. But it is still weak and may not have the upper air currents that would break up hurricanes.
The most powerful season in history. 28 Tropical storms, 15 hurricanes, 7 Cat 3+. 4,000 fatalities, $140b in damages. Wilma was the largest storm ever observed. Katrina devastated a city.
2006-2009 No readings over 90 degrees.
2010. We have just crossed to a La Nina condition. 90.4 degrees on 8/9.
This is a look at the El Nino/La Nina cycle. That thin blue line that is just starting to appear on the right just might be timed to save us some headaches. But it is still weak and may not have the upper air currents that would break up hurricanes.
The hot water in the GoM has to go somewhere. Storms will form, in the process the heat energy will be converted into rain and wind. These might not be Atlantic hurricanes. They could be “home growns”. These can be just as dangerous. They form quickly. They would look just like the following developing storm. It will be passing over buoy 42001 next week. It will suck up a tremendous amount of energy along the way. It will probably have a name by then.
