"U.S. equities at five-month highs, gold at one-year lows, the yen at five-month lows and Treasuries having their tightest yield range in almost 20 years on the week that tariffs were implemented. Where’s the risk aversion and the panic?"
Japanese cash wages soared by 2.1% y/y in May, up from 0.6% in April and more than double the median estimate of 0.9%, matching the fastest increase since 1994. And yet, at the same time, household spending tumbled at the fast pace in 2 years...
"We are looking for the Fed to communicate more clearly the intention of their policy so the market can understand clearly and also react and all the central banks can also anticipate and consider it in their policy making."
"Yes, a major trade war is likely to cause damage to the U.S. economy, but a lot of that will be in the longer term. It’s going to cause significantly more pain, especially in the short term, to all those exporters Trump is targeting."
It's a risk-on mood around the world, as China makes an unexpected trade concession by slashing auto import tariffs to 15%, while the Italian bond rout is taking a break, leading to a sharp rebound in the euro as the dollar slides.
It’s alive! Much like Frankenstein’s monster, the automobile market has been jolted back to life by an external shock, this one in the form of the hurricanes which pounded large swaths of the United States last summer.
Global trade is the ultimate collection of supertankers so it takes a lot of effort and even more time to turn it around. The more valid area of concern is volatility, which has flirted with a game-changing shift to an environment where price swings are constantly elevated.