Amid a seeming non-stop barrage of headlines about flybys, test-flights, and aviation drills among America's nuclear-capable bombing fleet, Military.com reports that the Air Force has grounded its entire fleet of B-1B Lancer bombers due to safety concerns.
"Haven’t we seen this movie before? Technology takes over the stock market late in a recovery cycle, seemingly making the bull ageless, stimulating investor greed bolstered daily by watching a chosen few (FANGs) rise to new heights, and convincing many that tech is really a defensive investment" - Jim Paulsen
Contrary to expectations that the Argentina Peso would rise on the IMF loan, the ARS resumed its selloff, and promptly breached the central bank's 25/USD barrier.
"What you are getting is a stimulus at the very wrong moment. The stimulus is going to hit the economy in a big way this year and next year, and then in 2020 Wile E. Coyote is going to go off the cliff and it's going to look down."
It's strange that the exact same set of concerns that we noted 24 hours ago in our Thursday morning wrap and which sent global market higher yesterday, have resulted in a sea of red today...
The IMF has bailed out Argentina - again - this time with a $50 billion, 36-month stand-by loan, and coming in $10 billion more than rumored earlier in the week, it was the largest ever bailout loan in IMF history
Given the avalanche of data we all have to contend with every day, there is comfort in averages and indices, mean observations and consensus. At the same time, there is much to learn from looking at datapoints located far outside our comfort zone.
In the first quarter of 2018, household net worth rose by a trillion dollars, rising above $100 trillion for the first time ever, as the stock market soared to new all time highs, and home prices hit new records. But the reality is that there is a big catch...
"With rates now at extensions only seen in 7 periods previously, there is little room left for further acceleration in rates before such a negative outcome spawns."
"... the US has already faced a normal tightening cycle and any additional rate hikes are taking us into territory not seen in recent times. This already may be enough for the Fed to have broken something."
"We are looking for the Fed to communicate more clearly the intention of their policy so the market can understand clearly and also react and all the central banks can also anticipate and consider it in their policy making."
