"A good number of clients have told me recently they are increasingly concerned this US growth phase is running out of steam and we willl be into economic slowdown as early as Q4 this year, triggering the end of this frothy global alignment of growth drivers."
"A speculative equity overshoot has begun, driven by a central bank liquidity supernova and rotation out of $10.8 trillion of negative yielding global debt."
It is safe to say that after years of disappointment, investor expectations were low ahead of today's Deutsche Bank earnings report. Yet somehow, the biggest German lender failed to beat even the most pessimistic one.
"Italian banks are again in the spotlight: they reduced their domestic sovereign debt holdings by €40bn (10.5% of outstanding stock) in Q4 as a whole.... this move in recent months is unprecedented."
"Rates on savings were "virtually untouched" in 2017, even as banks charged fatter payments on loans and other assets whose rates jumped along with the Fed's increases."
"Many clients are asking if the move is significant enough to drive broader de-risking of systematic investors such as CTAs, Volatility Targeting and others."
Towards the end of financial bubbles, people who previously paid little attention to things like “quality” start trying to figure out what they actually own. The result is either funny or terrifying, depending on the point of view...
"The government does not consider cryptocurrencies legal tender or coin and will take all measures to eliminate use of these crypto-assets in financing illegitimate activities or as part of the payment system"
Welcome to the post-Janet Yellen era which sees the month of February begin with solid risk appetite as S&P futures initially rallied out of the gate only to fade into the European session, as 10Y Treasury yields spiked.
Following a succession of consumer-friendly rulings, bank customers in Spain are increasingly taking their banks to court. And many of them are winning...
"It doesn’t take a giant pin to prick the bubble. It just takes something unexpected... Nobody ever knows what will set off the next crisis... But in GE’s case, you can bet there isn’t just one cockroach."
KKR sees a near certain recession in late 2019 due to a structurally peaking U.S. dollar, a flattening yield curve, higher unit labor costs, and some reversion to the mean in both consumer confidence and home building expectations.
"The committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate... Inflation on a 12 ‑month basis is expected to move up this year"
