"Because the long-term consequences are likely to be so modest and reversible, the incentive is to move aggressively in the short term. If tariffs are popular politically, there are even more likely to be extended."
"The very despots that have the ability to cause a collapse are telling us a collapse is about to happen. It is time to take the matter seriously, and prepare accordingly."
"The majority of capital deployed is going right back to shareholders and not reinvestment in businesses. If that’s the only thing you’re relying on, it’s going to end badly."
"There’s a good chance that the heavy and rapid bursts of selling activity described here is the result of the Fed or other large entity trying to push gold prices down..."
"For the first time in at least four years, more than 50% of those we surveyed think global growth is more likely to disappoint than not over the next 12 months." - Barclays
While some suggest a US-China war is inevitable, there’s also enormous economic pressure on China and the US to find common ground. Compared to adversaries of the past 100 years, economic linkages between the US and China are much larger.
The 23% slide in Chinese stocks from 2018 highs has created widespread investor concern about a potential repeat of the 2015 market dislocation. But is this a credible threat? Here is Goldman's response.
"The combination of macro trends, liquidity risks and stretched equity valuations/margin expectations for 2019 should lead to a continued rocky road with higher volatility and a negative tilt for risky assets..."
"If we removed 70M accounts from our reported metrics, you would hear directly from us. This article reflects us getting better at improving the health of the service."
