One employee's leg was amputated as a result of a workplace safety incident in which a forklift driver was "doing donuts". Others felt forced to walk through raw sewage...
"Our conviction has only grown stronger that easy is over. Monetary conditions continue to tighten across the globe, led by those in the US. What’s more, financial conditions are tightening as well..."
"China now runs trade deficits with both Japan and Europe, so why should they allow the Euro and Yen to continue to devalue against the CNY? This has two profound implications..."
"The further the overshoot extends, the longer the economy will have to operate somewhat below potential to return to a sustainable place. This implies an increasingly narrow runway for a soft landing."
The credit cycle is not turning yet, but some long term investors are already planning for it. What are the potential contagion channels and how should investors position portfolios defensively when signals are flashing red?
the Fed “expects that further gradual increases” in interest rates would be appropriate continues to oversee an economic expansion, even as it warned that valuation pressures remain elevated.
"At some point, the boom had to have boomed. We are moving into the past tense for all this now, inflation hysteria almost certainly tucked away into the economic ledger alongside four other false dawns... It’s not what it was supposed to have been."
"Market mocks and loves Fed: linking flat yield curve, wimpy US dollar bull market, tech’s lonely bull market with the belief that at first hint of trouble Fed will stop hiking"
"The record bilateral surplus shows exactly that the U.S. economy is robust while that of China is weakening. China’s domestic investment is softening due to funding strains, while consumption is not particularly strong either."
