The Big Banks have been regulated to the point of absurdity after the 2008 financial crisis, and when the financial markets crash this time the public will need a new entity to blame.
Does Saudi Arabia cut Oil Production to help their near term budget difficulties and cede market share to the United States, Iran, Iraq and Russia or do they stay the course and try to wait for the oil market to take that next leg down.
Demand is not going to be enough to rebalance the oil market, we still need a major supply rebalancing, as the oil market has been oversupplied for a decade.
The Grains, and some of the Softs and Meats that have a substantial export market are getting hammered today and this week on the breakout in the US Dollar on European weakness.
We think given the devaluation history of the Turkish government and Monetary Policy Strategy that the Lira will continue to depreciate further against the US Dollar over the long haul.
It is important to think about capital allocation strategies in a high level manner such as position sizing, possible outcomes, risk profiles, catalysts, opportunity costs and market conditions.
