South Africa supplies almost 60% of the world's platinum (including secondary supply) and 30% of the world's palladium (including secondary supply).

According to Johnson Matthey, platinum production fell almost 16% in 2012 while palladium production declined 10% last year alone.

With prices well below their recent highs, looming production cuts will leave markets tight supporting prices and likely leading to higher prices.

A record deficit in platinum supplies is set to push prices higher and demand is boosted by the new exchange traded fund (ETF).

Sales of silver coins by the U.S. Mint have set a record high in the first half of 2013 seeing the best start to a year ever. 

Year to date Silver Eagle sales are at 30.3 million, a record pace that was supported by soaring July sales. Silver Eagle sales had a record year in 2011. That year, it took until September 21, 2011, to reach above 30 million in sales for the year.

Therefore, 2013 looks set to be a record year for Silver Eagle sales.

The LBMA clearing statistics therefore essentially represent huge daily trading through unallocated accounts, most of which is classified as spot delivery, but which is backed by very small physical metal foundations. The clearing statistics while interesting, need to be made more transparent and granular beyond the headline data. Otherwise they tend to obscure rather than illuminate.

There is no doubting the massive reserves of fossil fuels still lying close to or just beneath the earth’s surface. One of the key points made in the first edition of Insight back in February is that we must factor in the cost of processing those fossil fuels before they can enter the energy market. The future of energy production is as much as about the economic cost of processing those supplies as it is about the extraction. 

Lump this into the mix with the challenges around energy, the instability of the global banking system, the high unemployment rates, particularly among the youth and interest rates at unsustainably low levels, it would be reckless to report that the world economy is either on the brink of or on the road to recovery. Gold is a finite resource, the Chinese central bank continues to acquire gold quietly and without declaring.....for now.

It’s worth repeating: In the shadow of this game, gold looks like a solid investment.

What is at stake is illustrated by the difference in oil consumption between Asia and the West. The former, exemplified by China and India, is still increasing its consumption growth. The latter, basically the OECD, has been using less oil each year since the crisis began in 2008. This is unsustainable. The OECD’s deepening recession is evidenced by its falling oil use while the fragility of the export dependent and imported energy dependent East’s growth prospects suggests that its real growth rate is about to peak or already has. 


The July edition of Insight aptly titled ‘As The Crisis Deepens, Gold Flows East’ builds on our recent commentary and offers another viewpoint on why there is a marked flow of gold from west to east.

The next three editions of Market Update will quote extensively from ‘As The Crisis Deepens, Gold Flows East’ as we delve deeper into the story and its implications for our financial well being.

According to media reports, the People's Bank of China is considering phasing out the dollar as the reference currency or peg for the yuan, and to start using gold as the reference point.

The reports have not been confirmed officially, but there has been official comments to that effect in recent years and Chinese academics have advocated backing the renminbi or yuan with gold.

Beijing's possible move to back the yuan with gold would be a strategic move in order to, lessen the risk of inflation, increase the yuan’s attractiveness as an investment medium and create faith in the yuan as a reserve currency.

Gold surged over 3% yesterday due to what appears to be have been significant short covering due to concerns about gold backwardation and the continual haemorrhaging of gold inventories from the COMEX.

Concerns about a default on the COMEX, once the preserve of a few observant market watchers, are becoming more widespread  as we appear to be witnessing a run on the highly leveraged bullion banking system.

Very robust physical demand from the Middle East, Asia and particularly China and a decline in the dollar also helped prices log their biggest one-day gain in over a year and their first close above $1,300 an ounce in nearly five weeks.

Gains in silver futures, meanwhile, outpaced gold’s rise, with silver surging 5%.

In testimony yesterday on Capitol Hill before the Senate Banking Committee, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke remarked:

“Gold is an unusual asset. It's an asset that people hold as disaster insurance. A lot of people hold gold as an inflation hedge.  But movements of gold prices don't predict inflation very well, actually. But anyway, the perception is that by holding gold you have a hard asset that will protect you in case of some kind of major problem.

India’s gold imports are set to fall in the second half as the government curbs shipments in a misguided attempt to prevent a further devaluation of the rupee.
However, if current trends continue, India is set to see full year imports rise from 860 tons in 2012 to 902 tons in 2013 or a gain of nearly 5%.  
At the weekend, Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades said he hoped there would never be a need for the sovereign nation to sell its gold reserves. Anastasiades said responsibility for the issue rested with the country's central bank.
"I want to believe there will never be such a need," Anastasiades told a news conference in Nicosia at the weekend. "The issue is not being discussed by the government, it is a responsibility of the central bank," he told reporters.