The reason that the 2008 debacle happened was very simple. The derivatives market, the largest, most leveraged market in the world. Today, the notional value of the derivatives sitting on US banks’s balance sheets is in the ballpark of $234 TRILLION. That's 16 times US GDP and more than four times WORLD GDP. Of this $234 trillion, 95% is controlled by just four banks. And they are... the TBTFs.
If you think that somehow the Fed’s money pumps will keep the system afloat and stop another 2008 type even from occurring, consider that we’ve gone from $50 billion to $200 billion per month in money pumps… and we’re still seeing sharp sell-offs occur. Indeed, at some point, and I cannot say specifically when, the Fed will lose control of the system. When that happens, the Crisis that follows will make 2008 look like a PICNIC.
This leads one to ask, “what is the Fed combating now?” And it’s not just Japan (the adjusted monetary base went vertical back in January). So what is requiring $200 billion per month? Also, we need to consider just how desperate the Fed is. QE 1 saw the Fed pumping $50 billion per month into the financial system. QE 2 saw $100 billion. Now we’re at $200 billion per month.
There are TRILLIONS in liquidity sloshing around the system right now. Inflation is already guaranteed. Sure we might have another debt Crisis, but there is absolutely no question that we’re going to be seeing massive debt defaults in the coming months and years. Currencies will be taking major hits when this occurs.
So with that in mind, I continue to maintain that we’ll be major inflation in the markets before the end of 2011
However, this time around, bad news has resulted in stocks are tanking and the US Dollar is rallying hard. The implications of this are vast. Is the Fed telling its buddies (Goldman etc) behind the scenes that they won’t be engaging in QE 3? Is the tide of easy money finally turning? I doubt it. The Fed HAS to keep funneling the money into the insolvent big banks. Failing to do so will trigger a collapse in the interest rate-based derivatives market which currently stands at $180+ TRILLION in the US alone.
The financial blogosphere has since been gripped by speculation as to why Goldman did this. Is it allowing Goldman’s inhouse folks to load up on these prices on the cheap? Does Goldman really think the commodity story is over? Did God call and tell them that His work meant selling commodities in April (yes, I made that last one up). In the end, none of these explanations matter. All that matters is that Goldman has presented us with a buying opportunity in the commodity space
Instead of bemoaning Bernanke and his policies, why don’t we all do something about it? I didn’t vote for this guy. None of us did. And yet we’re all paying the price (literally) for his policies. How do we vote against him? Simple. Buy Gold and DON’T buy stocks. Don’t fall for the “stock wealth effect” BS and instead invest in something the Fed CAN’T devalue.
Bernanke and pals believe that if they can make the stock market rise, people will feel richer and will start spending money again, insuring that the US economy (which is 70% based on the consumer) will come roaring back to life. This sort of thinking is that it’s so superficial as to be laughable, especially for those claiming to have an advanced education from a top university. Indeed, the fact that the S&P 500 goes from 1,000 to 1,330 DOESN’T mean that those who own stocks are that much wealthier. This is because the nominal price of stocks (what the S&P 500 is priced at) IS NOT the same as the PURCHASING POWER of stocks.
We are entering an inflationary death spiral. YES, we might have another round of debt deflation, but the flight from the US Dollar is already beginning worldwide. Saudi Arabia has sent representatives to China and Russia to strengthen trade ties (an obvious move away from pricing Oil in Dollars). China and Russia have agreed to begin trading in their own currencies rather than Dollars. And in some emerging markets people don’t even want to accept Dollars in business transactions anymore.
We have a debt problem. And according to our elected leaders, the way to address that debt problem is to fight over some $30 billion in spending at the exact same time that unelected leaders (the Fed) are printing three times that amount (at least that we know of) to buy MORE US debt.
Congress, you need to wake up. The people who are acting as your financial advisors are lying to you about the economy and our financial system. They’re also lying to you about the effectiveness of their policies. You are supposed to represent us. You are supposed to defend us against threats both internal and external. Bernanke is lying to you and all of us. He is an internal threat to our financial wellbeing.
DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT.
The REAL Crisis (of which 2008 was the warm-up) is fast approaching. When I say REAL Crisis I mean full-scale systemic meltdown, a situation in which the market accomplishes what the Fed, regulators, and US Government at large have failed to do: clean house. The plain facts are right in front of us. The US is broke on every level: Federal, State, Local, and individual/ consumer. We all know this, but we don’t want to admit it because doing so would likely mean wiping out at minimum 30% of what we have today.
For well over two years now we’ve been told that the US was in recovery and that as most the biggest risk was a potential double dip. The reality however was that the US never experienced a real recovery (unless you work at one of the “chosen” firms on Wall Street).
Going forward, we’re going to see economic data become even MORE divorced from reality, assertions that the economy is back on track, and that at worst there is the specter of a “double-dip” recession looming. Heck, even these fears are sugar-coated… literally (making an economic nightmare sound like an ice-cream sundae is a GENIUS marketing move).
The truth is that that the market’s moves are in fact controlled by just three factors:
1) The Fed’s money pumps
2) High Frequency Trading Programs
3) The suspension of accounting standards and permission of endless fraud in the financial system
