One thing is for certain, the litigation is beginning to shift from minor players to major players at the core of the Financial Crisis. Investors take note, this is a major shift and needs to be monitored as it will have major implications for market dynamics going forward.
When Greece defaults, the fall-out will be much, much larger than people expect simply by virtue of the fact that everyone is lying about their exposure to Greece.
Make no mistake, inflation is creeping into the system in a big way. And the Fed will not raise interest rates to fight it until it’s far too late. Debt levels are simply too high for the Federal Government and US corporations, particularly the large banks which the Fed has been doing everything it can to prop up.
These January jobs numbers make the Obama administration look good, at least relative to how it’s looked in the previous 12 months. However, they’re not reflecting as positively on two of Obama’s primary support groups: Wall Street and the US Federal Reserve.
The reality is that the Fed is stuck in ZIRP and will never be able to leave it. In 2011, the US made $454 BILLION in interest payments. And that’s with interest rates at or near 0%. Things are only going to get worse. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the estimated interest that will be due on the US’s debt load by 2015 will be $533 billion: an amount equal to 1/3 of all federal income taxes collected that year (assuming of course that the current GDP growth projections are accurate...)
While unemployment is a big problem for the Chinese Government, inflation is a HUGE problem. Over one third of China's population lives off less than $2 a day. If the price of food rises in China... those "mass incidents" will explode into outright widespread rioting and civil unrest.
If you think the EU Crisis is over, think again. True we’ve got until March 20th for the Greek deal to be reached, but things have already gotten to the point that Germany has essentially issued its ultimatum. Either Greece hands over fiscal sovereignty, or it defaults in a BIG way.
The vast majority of professional investors are unable to contemplate truly dark times for the markets. After all, the two worst items most of them have witnessed (the Tech Bust and 2008) were both remedied within about 18 months and were followed by massive market rallies.Because of this, the idea that the financial system might fail or that we might see any number of major catastrophes (Germany leaving the EU, a US debt default, hyperinflation, etc.) is on par with Bigfoot or Unicorns for 99% of those whose jobs are to manage investors' money or advise investors on how to allocate their capital.
Corruption is only possible if the benefits to the parties engaged in it far outweigh the potential consequences. However, as soon as the potential consequences become real, that’s when everything changes: people start talking/ confessing, and the corruption begins to come unraveled.
While the “across the board” perspective looks quite bleak, there are going to be truly outstanding opportunities for wealth creation available to those entrepreneurs and businesspeople who are able to think creatively.
To picture how a cutback in social programs will impact the US populace, consider that in 2011, 48% of Americans lived in a household in which at least one member received some kind of Government benefit. Over 45 million Americans currently receive food stamps. And 43% of Americans aged 65-74 are Medicare beneficiaries. Consider the impact that even a 10% reduction in these various programs would have on the US populace.
Let’s cut the BS here. The Fed has maintained a more than highly accommodative stance for three years now and U-16 unemployment, food stamp usage, home prices, and virtually every other economic metric indicate that they’ve done little to boost the US economy in any meaningful way. QE has and always will be about boosting asset prices in the hope that the Fed can stimulate a recovery by getting the S&P 500 to some level.
At some point, the market will force the issue of whether or not the ECB is going to be monetizing everything or not. Germany, having already seen the ultimate outcome of monetization (Weimar) has already made it clear that it will not tolerate this.
So… are stock investors smarter than everyone else… or are they just gunning the market on low volume yet again regardless of reality? We’ll find out this week once we get past the Fed FOMC and Europe’s decision on Greece.
Folks, just a few months ago, no less than the IMF, Bank of England, and others warned that we were facing a global meltdown and the worst financial crisis in history. Do you really think a few liquidity programs have solved all of this?
