The Fed’s decision to buy $400 billion of longer-term US Treasuries in this environment is essentially the Fed announcing that it will be covering a significant portion of new debt issuance going forward as a means of putting off the inevitable US debt default. At most the Fed has bought 2-3 months of time for the US. I fully believe that before the end of this year, the bond market will shift its sights away from Europe to the US. At that time, the US debt bubble will burst resulting in systemic failure.

My primary point with all of this is that the bailout/ intervention gravy train has come to an end. Indeed, while the lemmings pile into stocks believing in this nonsense, smart investors are already preparing for the next leg down in the markets. The reason is simple: last week’s sell off is JUST the beginning of what's coming.

 

The Fed is trying to lower long-term interest rates… at a time when Treasuries are trading at all time highs. This is akin to buying Tech stocks in late 2000 or buying Housing stocks in late 2007. The US debt market is officially in a bubble… and the Fed wants to spend $400 billion trying to make it bigger. With leverage of over 50-to-1 the Fed is finished.

 

This move reeks of desperation. The fact it occurred during options expiration further illustrates one of our long-held views: the Central Banks intervene during options expiration week whenever possible to permit the largest upside move (See the Fed’s juicing of the market post-QE 1 in 2010).

 

The primary problem is that the world Central Banks continue to intervene to prop the markets up. We had a global intervention earlier today… forcing the US Dollar to collapse while the Euro soared.This is an act of desperation. It is essentially an admission on the part of the Central Banks that Europe is in a full-scale liquidity crisis a la pre-Lehman.

 

The market has become dominated by rumors. The primary rumor is of China supporting Europe. We saw similar rumors in 2008 for Wall Street banks. Those purchases all resulted in massive losses for the funds in question. And yet we are seeing similar rumors inciting large rallies in stocks today, this time the rumors pertaining to China and Japan buying Europe.