Germany’s campaign for austerity in the EU is about to lose its biggest ally. How exactly this will play out is unclear, but it will not be conducive to the Euro lasting in its current form much longer: aside from the fact that the EU banking system is on the verge of collapse and Spain (a country too large to bailout) has now stepped to the center stage of the EU crisis, Germany is finding itself increasingly alone in its moves to rein in the ECB’s monetary profligacy.
In simple terms, Spain is like Greece, only bigger and worse. According to the Bank of International Settlements worldwide exposure to Spain is north of $1 TRILLION with Great Britain on the hook for $51 billion, the US on the hook for $187 billion, France on the hook for $224 billion and Germany on the hook for a whopping $244 billion.
Case in point, if the Spanish auction went so well, why are Spanish Credit Default Swaps widening? Ditto for Spanish yields (the ten year is back closing in on 6%)? However, ultimately this auction means next to nothing. Spain is an absolute disaster on a level that few if any analysts can even grasp.
The bailout gravy train is slowing and possibly even stopping right at the time when Spain (a REAL problem) is going to start looking for a bailout. So what do you think happens when the ECB chooses to print more and Germany threatens to pull out the Euro… OR the ECB tells Spain it can’t provide any additional funds?
Remember, the real European collapse will occur when the political landscape changes in Europe: when supporting the bailout madness becomes unpalatable for EU leaders due to its political consequences in their home countries.
All of these factors, combined with the end of the strongest seasonal period for stocks (November-April) as well as the end of Operation Twist 2 (June) have the making of a truly horrific period for the markets. Indeed, the mere fact that verbal interventions from the Fed are no longer working should tell investors point blank that things are about to get VERY ugly in the markets.
This is the mother of all bombshells in Europe and no one is talking about it. Germany basically announced that it will allow German banks to DUMP euro-zone government bonds off their balance sheets. It also announced it will provide up to 400 billion euros in backstops and 80 billion euros for bank recapitalization.
The Crisis coming from Europe will be far, far larger in scope than anything the Fed has dealt with before.
The Fed is now politically toxic and cannot engage in aggressive monetary policy without experiencing severe political backlash (this is an election year).
The Fed’s resources are spent to the point that the only thing the Fed could do would be to announce an ENORMOUS monetary program which would cause a Crisis in of itself.
I continue to see articles in the media claiming that Europe’s problems are solved. Either the folks writing these articles can’t do simple math, or they don’t bother actually reading any of the political news coming out of Europe.
In simple terms, the Fed’s hands are tied and the ECB is out of ammo. The End Game for Central Bank intervention is approaching. And it won’t be pretty… First Europe. Then Japan. Then the US. So if you’re not already taking steps to prepare for the coming collapse, you need to do so now.
You don't spend over $1 trillion in nine months unless something very, very bad is coming down the pike. That something "BAD" is the collapse of Europe's banking system: a $46 trillion sewer of toxic PIIGS debt that is leveraged at more than 26 to 1 (Lehman was leveraged at 30 to 1 when it went under).
Folks, QE 3 is not coming. Not without a Crisis first. End of story. The last time the Fed hit “print” with QE 2 put food prices at all time records and kicked off revolutions and riots around the globe. Today, gas is already at $4, food prices aren’t too far off their highs… do you REALLY think the Fed will kick off more QE in this environment… during an election year? At a time when the Fed is becoming a hot topic in the election?
In simple terms, this time around, when Europe goes down (and it will) it’s going to be bigger than anything we’ve seen in our lifetimes. And this time around, the world Central Banks are already leveraged to the hilt having spent virtually all of their dry powder propping up the markets for the last four years. Again, this time it is different. I realize most people believe the Fed can just hit “print” and solve everything, but they’re wrong. The last time the Fed hit “print” food prices hit records and revolutions began spreading in emerging markets. If the Fed does it again, especially in a more aggressive manner as it would have to, we would indeed enter a dark period in the world and the capital markets.
In the US, we instead chose to undermine capitalism and the economic cycle. In the process we’ve undermined trust in the system. Until this is remedied there will be not REAL recovery.
