Forget rate hikes… an entire generation of investors and money managers (anyone under the age of 55) has been investing in an era in which risk has generally gotten cheaper and cheaper. What happens when the bond bubble bursts?
The fact that Central banks are now openly cutting interest rates to NEGATIVE should tell you how far along we are in terms of funding problems (at these rates, bond holders are PAYING the Government for the right to own bonds). From a baseball analogy we’re in the late 8th, possibly early 9th inning.
The Fed may raise rates a token amount this year, but the move will be largely symbolic. You can bet there will NEVER be a shock and awe interest rate raise.
All of this makes no sense at all until you consider that ALL Central Banking actions have been focused on one thing: making sure the global bond bubble DOESN’T IMPLODE.