Now, nearly everybody knows that French banks, & BNP in particular, may have some serious, "run on the bank style", liquidity issues. Well, here's what you may not know, & what traders very well may punish!
Now that the French banks have pretty done exactly what we anticipated due to Italy and Greece who pretty much did what we anticipated, what's next? Look towards those banking stalwarts, but don't mention the US or shhhh!!! Gemany... Oh yeah, it's too late!
I'm going to appear on the Max Kesier Show Tuesday and will do something that very few rarely do. I will walk through a hypothetical (actually, not so) run on the bank and show in detail what the fallout will be. This post will serve as a detailed outline.
The BNP Paribas "Run On The Bank" Model is now available for download, absolutely free. Why don't you see for yourself if France's 2nd largest bank needs capital or is in risk of a bank run - using your inputs instead of relying on news clips, long only fund managers & conflicted European officials.
"Look at what I say, not at what I do! We have no liquidity problem." Listen, if you have to sell $96 billion of mismarked assets when you DON'T need liquidity, imagine what needs to be done if you have a liquidity problem!
This post, in and of itself, should demonstrate to the entire Sell Side of Wall Street, the MSM/pop media outlets and all who may follow them that BoomBustBlog forensic research and analysis is simply superior to much of what is available and significantly overpaid for in terms of investment advice and opinion.
It is quite refreshing to see some real and objective analysis come out of the sell side, particularly from one bank regarding another, but I must admit that if I had to pick a bone with Lim's analysis, it wouldn't be the content or quality, but the timeliness. What the hell took you so long to come to these rather astute observations, dude?
You know the saying...It's not paranoia if they're really after you. Europe is much, much closer to universal bank collapse than the media is letting on. You, my friends, are getting a distorted picture of mis(or dis, depending on your paranoia level)information. Enter Bear Stearns 2.0 without a JPM to swallow it with Fed help, or Lehman Brothers 4.0x5!
Yes, equity markets in Europa and the US are getting the Axe treatment, but the event that is most forboding is still being overlooked by the media. At the end of the day, this will be the cause of continuation of the 2009 global market collapse... CONTAGION!!!
This time, an "I told 'ya so" simply will not suffice. The amount of pressure the big banks will come under will reverbrate around the globe, yet many in the sell side are still recommending big bank "buys"!!!
The IMF says Euro banks are severely undercapitalized, the EU says the IMF is full of it. Reggie says they're both so optimistic that the word disaster can't even be spelled correctly without someone in a marble office breaking out into hives...
Try, try, try as you might, you really cannot manipulate global markets on a sustainable basis. Italy, Portugal, Ireland and Greece are joining the ECB at the back of the class for a crash course in this lesson as I type this...
