Regardless of what package the Troika (or China or Russia) would have ever given Greece, the endgame would have always been full tilt default. This can be mathematically proven. There are also about 14 other countries with similar characteristics - all easily seen with just a modicum of insight and research. Just as easy is the ability to avoid the inevitable capital controls and bank bail-ins that the Greeks are subject to now.
Probably the most prescient call of the year, made with two months lead time. Those EU area residents, particualrly the Greeks, who heeded the warning have now gained the freedom to sail past capital controls and bank holidays. What may have been overlooked is that I also prepared a list of what countries (and bank domiciles) may be next.
A Grexit debacle easily highlights the advantages of trading throgh blockchain technology. Long story short - no FTDs, counterparty or default risk when trading forex pairs!
Is Deustche Bank the next Lehman is likely the wrong question to be asking. Is Lehman the template for European banking may be more to the point. Take it from the guy that called the Lehman debacle 5 months before the fact.
While most bank executives are concerned about GAFA owning the customer experience, they are blinded to the vision of the forest due to the tree standing in their way. The true risk is outright disintermediation as the banking function is turned into cloud-based P2P software through the blockchain.
Death by a thousand cuts now has a venture capital version. Observe as I walk through FinTech startups literally disassemblet the almighty money center bank.
Just as very few realize the dollar and the euro are digital currencies, very few realize that those dollars and euros that they own quite possibly being hacked right now. Here's how easy it is to do so...
This may take you the entire weekend to digest, but if you are an unsecured creditor/lender (have a checking, savings or demand deposit account) to a euro zone bank, I would consider it your fiduciary responsibility to yourself to sit down and parse this piece with care and aplomb!
Good thing Goldman didn't take me upon that leveraged macro trade yesterday. The GS short leg was up ~50% as I type this post. More concerning than my catching their increase in risk/leverage is the method in which I did the trade. Broker-dealers are no longer needed, and Goldman is a broker-dealer.
In 2010, contrary to nearly every pundit, analyst and economist popularly published, I proclaimed ZIRP would starve the banks. Fast forward 5 years and banks are looking famished and things are getting worse 'casue more bailouts are coming before we finish ending the last bailout program (ZIRP) - The Federal Reserve has decided to let U.S. banks make limited use of municipal bonds to meet liquidity requirements
