Somebody seems to have taken notice of the discussion on Prepaid Legal. Those 40 Puts Impl. Vol. are ripping! And for good reason. The stock and interest in it is on the down move...
Every now and then, you come across a company and wonder, "How the hell are they still in business?" I announced what I believed to be a ponzi scheme, (see Flim, Flam, Scam: Would a PPD Ponzi and Pyramid scheme cause your wealth to Scram?, A Demonstration of How PPD Management is Destroying the Company and Reggie Middleton's Continued Public Service Announcement on the Flim Flam Scam). Since then, the company has announced that it is being investigated by the FTC and the SEC.
If the contents of this post doesn't give you pause and cause you to doubt the future of the Eurozone's integrity, I don't know what will. Here's a quick quiz. What well known (in name only) Italian American has a significant chunk of the European Union Sovereign nations apparently modeled their financial engineering from?
The year 2009 was the year of reflation theories and bubble blowing. Theses of "Green Shoots", catching the bottom, and QE reigning supreme were the order of the day. Sure enough, asset prices (nearly all of them) went one direction, straight up. We all saw it coming, but guys like me who actually count the money and rely on the fundamentals didn't believe it was a sustainable gain. It wasn't a bull market, but a bear market rally. After nearly one year, the reflationists have had their hay day, or have they?
About a year and a half ago I warned that HSBC would be facing
increasing and unanticipated (I was a contrarian on the China bubble)
losses/slowdown in Asia, as well as increasing losses on bad debt in the US. I
believe I was one of the very few who threw this caution out there.
If the engineered bear market rally is running off of the FASB generated lies, then we certainly do have another crash coming, don't we? It truly is a damn shame how the financial integrity of this country has been sold to the highest bidder through the most influential lobbyist. Don't they realize they are destroying the essence of what makes the American markets the global leader - the perception of transparency, honest accounting and reliable financial reporting?
Some of the top secret AIG bailout info is out. One Goldman Sachs Guess who's at
the heart of it, making money by creating straight trash, selling it to
its clients then buying insurance to benefit from its inevitable
crash? I quote "divulging the names of the [trash] CDOs could erode their value: “We will be hurt because traders in the market will know what we’re holding.”.
I was clearly able to see the Greek bank downgrades coming, but there was one bank that was left out, as I expected it to be. If or when that bank gets downgraded, it is a strong chance that Greece will go down with it.
In this installment of the Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis, I illustrate the potential contagion effects of the portion of Europe that is in a flat out Depression. Yes, Depression! There are quite a few strategic banks that have significant claims on this region, as well as Greece. Just imagine the potential consequences if all of the stars aren't aligned properly...
The question of the day, "Does the Mainstream Media Take the Blogoshpere Seriously as a Credible Distribution Outlet for News and Opinion?" While the answer should be a resounding yes, the reality of the situation is probably "no". The media probably does consider blogs a threat to revenue and eyeballs, though. This is an interesting story presented to me from Aaron Krowne from Implode-a-Meter...
Pending bond maturities due in 2010 are paving the way for the next wave of the Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis - Supply, potentially in excess of demand, which portends higher yields and more onerous debt servicing at a time of record fiscal spending!
This is how the crisis will spread through western Europe...
It appears as if SPG offered a reasonable acquisition premium over what we feel is reasonable for GGP. Ackman's (publicy disseminated) valuations were apparently in the stratosphere (and our analysis clearly demonstrated this point) while Hovde was a little pessimistic. I'll leave it up to the readers to determine who was the most accurate regarding GGP both on the short side going down (I think I was the only one declaring a position publicly) and on the long side going up (I did not have a position).
Taubman's Q4 results were as to be expected, despite the rather upbeat spin that was attached to the announcement. This is essentially a barometer for the CRE industry...
