Today Is Best Day to Buy Gold - Thackray's 2012 Investor's Guide

Today's AM fix was USD 1565.50, EUR 1281.10 and GBP 1011.96 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1576.50, EUR 1284 and GBP 1012.91 per ounce.

Gold rose by 0.5% in New York yesterday and closed up $8.20 to $1,576.60/oz. Silver rose 0.93% or 25 cents to close at $27.09/oz.

Gold gradually ticked lower in Asian trading and has seen further slight weakness in European trading. Still robust physical demand is supporting gold at these levels and strong support is at the $1,500/oz level. 

The period of seasonal strength for gold bullion has arrived.

Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide notes that the optimal time to invest in gold bullion from a seasonal perspective is today, July 12.

The summer months normally see seasonal weakness and it is thus a good time to buy on the seasonal dip.

The Global and Mail reports that Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide shows that the optimal time to invest in gold bullion for a seasonal trade is from July 12th to October 9th (see news). 

“The trade has been profitable during 11 of the past 14 periods.”

During the past 25 years, gold bullion has outperformed the S&P 500 Index by a very significant 4.7% during the period.

The Globe and Mail notes that “traditionally, advances in gold during its period of seasonal strength is attributed to precious metal fabricators in India who purchase bullion to make into jewellery for the Indian wedding season that starts in late October. India is the second-biggest consumer of gold jewellery in the world behind China.”

The trend may also be due to more sophisticated investors using gold as a hedge and diversification and increasing allocations to gold during the late summer and early autumn months which traditionally see weakness in stock markets. 

Timing markets is extremely difficult - even for the few successful traders. However, there are clear seasonal patterns that long term physical gold buyers can use to their advantage.

We continue to advocate accumulating physical gold bullion on dips and holding for the long term.

Indeed, part of your allocation to gold should be a permanent holding that you hold as you would a health insurance policy. 

Gold will protect in the event of a geopolitical, macroeconomic, monetary or systemic event.


(Thomson Reuters Global Gold Forum) - Gold Should Find Good Support Around Current Levels
A quick look at some technical analysts' notes from the last 24 hours suggests gold should find good support around current levels. Barclays Capital flags up primary support for spot prices at $1,565/oz and secondary support at $1,550/oz, while ScotiaMocatta expects the metal to hit support at $1,551/1,548/oz. 

(Thomson Reuters Global Gold Forum) –Investors Add to Precious Metal Positions in June
Investors returned to commodity exchange-traded products in June after two months of outflows, with the bulk going into precious metals, according to BlackRock data, as a stuttering U.S. economy encouraged investors to bet on further stimulus moves. 

Commodity ETPs attracted some $2.5 billion in June, the data showed, as investors began building their positions in gold. These gold flows have accelerated in July as economic indicators have continued to deteriorate.

(Thomson Reuters Global Gold Forum) – JP Morgan sent out a note outlining their second global gold sector survey. The ranges on the long-range gold price are eye-popping: from $500 an ounce to $10,000.

Outside the wild extremes, JP Morgan notes that gold price expectations have a fat upside tail. Most (23%) responders feel the long-term gold price will be about $2,000/oz. An interesting group representing 9% of those surveyed expect a long-term price of $1,200/oz, while a significant 16% seems to be looking for a gold price above $2,500/oz.

(Bloomberg) -- Indian Gold Demand Was Strongest This Month Yesterday, UBS Says
Physical gold demand from India yesterday was the strongest so far in July, according to UBS AG.

“From now until the buying season starts kicking in towards the end of the quarter, Indian demand is likely to continue its sporadic trend wherein strong days are typically followed by subdued appetite,” London-based analyst Edel Tully wrote in a report today. India’s demandis down by about 30 percent since the start of the year, she said.

While the initial indicators from the start to Indian monsoon season “aren’t so good” for gold demand so far, “there is still time for some optimism to grow,” Tully wrote. Rural farming areas account for about 60 percent of Indian gold- buying, she wrote.

(Bloomberg) -- Standard Bank Picks Gold, Silver, Brent, Aluminum to Rally Most
Standard Bank Plc picked gold, silver, brent oil and aluminum as most likely to rally the most if there is any more easing from the Federal Reserve.

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Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg)


Get ready for gold bullion's season of strength - The Globe and Mail

Gold slips on uncertain Fed stimulus outlook‎ - CNBC

Gold 22% Rally To Record Seen By Eric Sprott - Bloomberg

Video: Investor Fears: Global Slowdown, More Unemployment - Bloomberg

European shares slip on U.S stimulus view - Reuters


The Price of Gold has been Manipulated. This is More Scandalous than Libor - Telegraph Blogs

Gold Report 2012: Erste's Comprehensive Summary - Zero Hedge

All Hell is Going to Break Loose on the Upside in Gold - King World News

Is Debt Destroying the American Dream? - Bloomberg

Krugman and Layard Suffer from Optimism Bias - HSBC