I Don't Think Facebook Investors Will "Like" This!!! Google Has Already Caught Up In Terms Of Active Users

For those who don't follow me, I've been bearish on Facebook's stock since day one, primarily due to valuation and pricing issues.  I'vemade (or saved) my subscribers a fortune on the Facebook IPO, from pre-IPO private trading to IPO at $38, to its fall to $17 or so. Lately, the stock has been on a tear. On January 10th, I posted "As Facebook Finally Starts To Approach Its IPO Price The Competition Thoroughly Outclasses It - Buyer Beware", basically a warning that my many admonitions concerning FB's risk adjusted prospects for success are still rather optimistic considering the offerings of its most dangerous competitor, Google. The piece illustrated how Google+ was not only technically superior to Facebook in nearly every way, but far cheaper for advertisers (Facebook's only real revenue stream) as well. Well, here's another potential nail in the like button coffin...

Facebook has two major caveats to its current business model. One is the monetization of its user base. The second is the growth of said user base itself....


Facebook's subscriber growth has actually slowed materially since this graphic was made.  

FB IPO Analysis  Valuation Note Page 09FB IPO Analysis Valuation Note Page 09

Well, here's the real kicker....

Google+ grows to become 2nd largest social platform globally

... and to make things worse, Google also owns the number three social platform as well. When combined, they have effectively caught up to Facebook already after just a single year of effort. That should scare the shit out of Facebook investors!

Google+, who despite being branded a failure or ghost town by large portions of the media, grew in terms of active usage by 27% to 343m users to become the number 2 social platform. Interestingly for Google, YouTube (not previously tracked by us as a social platform) comes in at number 3, demonstrating the immense opportunity of linking Google’s services through the G+ social layer. This is also a key indication of why Google+ integrated with the Google product set is so key to the future of search and the internet. We’ve got more coming on Google+ later this week as well.
Source: +GlobalWebIndex 
Link: http://goo.gl/hgU4k

Here are some very interesting comments from the Google+ post that I sourced this from, one being from the Google+ head himself (Vic).

  • I recently read an article about Exxon using G+ in place of Facebook and Microsoft to create global collaborative workgroups. The article noted the seamless G+ integration with video, messaging, and document sharing as a key factor in their decision to utilize Google over similar services offered by MS and the like. Another interesting growth area has been in education.#GooglePlusInTheClassroom. IMO Google Plus isn't as much of a social networking platform as much as a Information Enterprise platform for the masses.


This level of social interaction from Google managment is both impressive and commendable. Now, to reminisce on past pontifications Facebook....Here's where I broke it down on Capital Account

I also happened to do the same on the Max Kesier show...

Subscribers who haven't refreshed their viewing of our Facebook research should do so now - (subscription only) FaceBook IPO & Valuation Note Update. Pro and instititional subscribers are welcome to peruse the downloadable Facebook Valuation Model, allowing you to input your own assumptions in the very unlikely event you may not agree 180% with me :-)

And from the archives...

Facebook Finally Faces The Fact Of BoomBustBlog Analsysis

I discussed Facebook on the Peter Schiff radio show, the Facebook excerpt is below...


Additional Facebook analysis, valuationa and commentary.

On Max Keiser, go to the 13:55 marker for more on Facebook...

Professional and institutional BoomBustBlog subscribers have access to a simplified unlocked version of the valuation model used for this report, available for immediate download - Facebook Valuation Model 08Feb2012. I just nominally input some very generous numbers and the best case scenario chart (see the chart tab after your own individual inputs) is quite revealing, indeed! The full forensic opinion is available to all subscribers here FaceBook IPO & Valuation Note Update, and the latest iteration can be found here FB IPO Analysis & Valuation Note - update with per share valuation 05/21/2012. It is recommended that subscribers (click here to subscribe) also review the original analyses (file iconFB note final 01/11/2011).


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