Today’s Data & journal links
Data sheets describing major market metrics, news and a journaling area for trading records in the centre of the pdf.
News and Views in brief
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said a referendum on Europe’s rescue package will confirm the nation’s membership of the euro as he stuck to plans to hold the vote amid signs his government may collapse.
“The referendum will be a clear mandate and strong message within and outside Greece on our European course and our participation in the euro,” Papandreou told his ministers in Athens early today, according to an e-mailed transcript. It will “ensure this course in the most decisive way.” The Cabinet voted unanimously to endorse the plan.
Papandreou will fly to France today to face European leaders surprised by his decision to put the bailout plan to a national vote and call a confidence vote in parliament. His grip on power weakened after a lawmaker from his socialist Pasok party defected, leaving him with 152 deputies in the 300-seat chamber, while another, Vasso Papandreou, called for the formation of a national unity government. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-02/referendum-will-confirm-greece-in-euro-papandreou.html
German unemployment unexpectedly rose for the first time in more than two years in October and manufacturing contracted as pessimism mounted among businesses in Europe’s largest economy.
The number of people out of work rose a seasonally adjusted 10,000 to 2.94 million, the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency said today. Economists forecast a decline of 10,000, the median of 31 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey showed. The adjusted jobless rate rose to 7 percent from 6.9 percent. A separate report showed factory output dropped. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-02/german-unemployment-unexpectedly-rises-first-time-in-more-than-two-years.html
Federal Reserve officials are probably engineering a third round of large-scale asset purchases, while they are unlikely to announce a decision today, according to economists in a Bloomberg News survey.
Sixty-nine percent of those surveyed say Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will embark on a third round of quantitative easing, or QE3, with a plurality of 36 percent predicting the move in the first quarter of next year, according to the poll of 42 economists from Oct. 26-31.
“We are becoming increasingly persuaded that QE3 is coming, this time focused on purchases of mortgage-backed securities,” said Dana Saporta, U.S. economist at Credit Suisse in New York. “The best guess is at this meeting they’ll try to build some consensus around the idea and lay the groundwork for eventual purchases.”http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-02/fed-seen-laying-ground-for-more-large-scale-asset-purchases.html
European stocks declined, erasing earlier gains, as the euro-area rescue fund was said to delay a planned 3 billion-euro ($4.1 billion) bond sale. Asian shares fell while U.S. index futures fluctuated.
Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY) slid 5 percent as Chief Executive Officer Antonio Horta-Osorio took leave of absence from his duties following medical advice. Logica Plc (LOG) sank 7.9 percent as the Anglo-Dutch computer services provider posted third-quarter sales that missed analysts’ estimates.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.3 percent to 234.28 at 10:27 a.m. in London, having earlier climbed 1.2 percent. The gauge has retreated 6.1 percent over the past four days as Greece called a referendum on its latest bailout package, spurring concern that the country may default. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-02/european-stocks-snap-three-day-drop-before-fed-meets-u-s-futures-advance.html
U.S. stock-index futures pared gains, following the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index biggest two-day slump in a month, as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s latest policy statement.
Futures on the S&P 500 expiring in December advanced 0.2 percent to 1,226.5 at 7:07 a.m. in New York after earlier climbing as much as 1.1 percent. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures expiring the same month gained 8 points, or 0.1 percent, to 11,690.
Thirty one S&P 500 companies are due to report results today, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Seventy four percent of companies that have reported results since Oct. 11 have topped analysts’ estimates for per-share profit, data compiled by Bloomberg show.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-02/u-s-stock-index-futures-rally-before-fed-meeting-on-policy-easing-review.html
The dollar declined against most major peers on speculation reports this week pointing to a faltering U.S. economy will spur the central bank to consider more asset purchases, or quantitative easing, to support growth.
The dollar slid versus the euro before Federal Reserve policy makers end a two-day meeting today. The euro strengthened after Greece’s Cabinet backed Prime Minister George Papandreou’s plan to put a bailout package to a referendum and before the region’s leaders meet to stem the debt crisis. It pared gains after the European Financial Stability Facility was said to postpone a bond sale.
“The dollar is softening into the meeting on talk of QE,” said Jane Foley, a senior currency strategist at Rabobank International in London. “I think that may be premature. The Fed’s tone will be very cautious. We’ve had a glimmer of hope or optimism on the Greek situation,” which supports the euro. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-01/euro-falls-versus-dollar-yen-on-plan-concern.html
Asian currencies dropped, led by Indonesia’s rupiah and South Korea’s won, on concern Greece’s planned referendum on the European Union rescue plan will worsen the debt crisis and cut appetite for emerging-market assets.
The rupiah slipped for a third day and Korea’s currency lost the most in two weeks as the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index of regional shares hit the lowest level since Oct. 24. The Greek vote, if rejected, could jeopardize the next installment of 8 billion euros ($11 billion) of emergency aid funds from the EU and International Monetary Fund later this month. A Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to a 32-month low, data showed yesterday. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-02/asian-currencies-weaken-led-by-won-on-greek-referendum-chinese-slowdown.html
The most accurate forecasters say gold will rebound from its biggest monthly plunge since 2008 and reach a record by March because economic growth is stagnating and Europe’s debt crisis is unresolved.
Futures traded in New York may rise 12 percent to $1,950 an ounce by the end of the first quarter, according to the median of estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The predictions are from eight of the top 10 analysts tracked by Bloomberg over the past eight quarters. Two declined to give forecasts.
Holdings in exchange-traded products backed by bullion rose the most in three months in October, and the most-widely held option gives owners the right to buy gold at $2,000 by Nov. 22. Demand for the metal accelerated since May as slowing growth and mounting concern that European leaders will fail to contain the region’s debt crisis caused $7.5 trillion to be erased from the value of global equities. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-01/top-gold-forecasters-see-bullion-rallying-to-record-by-march-commodities.html
Oil rose in New York for the first time in four days on speculation European leaders will push Greece to accept their rescue plan, reducing the chances the region’s debt crisis will worsen and curb economic growth.
Futures rose as much as 1.1 percent, reversing a decline of 1.3 percent, as European leaders prepared to tell Greece there is no alternative to budget cuts in their bailout plan. Gasoline and distillate-fuel stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer, probably fell for a fifth week, according to a Bloomberg News survey before an Energy Department report today. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. recommended investors buy long-dated crude futures in New York and London. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-02/crude-gains-on-european-debt-crisis-talks-as-u-s-fuel-stockpiles-decline.html