As DB's Jim Reid reminds us, "today is exactly one month until Christmas", and as happens around this time of the year, it will be a truncated week due to the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday that usually extends into a sleepy Friday for markets.
That said, the holiday shortened week still see some interesting US data with consumer confidence (Tuesday), preliminary Q3 real GDP, October durable goods orders, October personal income/spending, the November Chicago PMI and the Fed’s Beige Book (Wednesday). Ahead of the December FOMC blackout period at the end of the week, Fed Chair Powell speaks this evening in Rhode Island and centrist Governor Brainard speaks tomorrow in New York to discuss the Fed's policy framework review.
As Reid notes, Powell’s recent Congressional testimonies didn’t reveal anything new so it’s unlikely we’ll learn much from Powell tonight but people will be listening nonetheless. There is also a chance that tomorrow Brainard discusses more about possible future yield curve control as an addition to the Fed’s policy toolkit.
For consumer confidence tomorrow, the reading has fallen for the last 3 consecutive months, but the consensus is looking for a slight uptick to 126.8 in November. For Wednesday, don’t expect any material revisions to the second print on Q3 real GDP (+1.9% preliminary vs. 1.9% advance), but the October durable goods data will provide an initial read on current-quarter capex spending if we can adjust for any impact from the GM strikes. A bounce back from these strikes should help the November Chicago PMI rebound (47 expected vs 43.2 last month) but there could be an additional boost from the recent stabilisation and slight bounce in the global manufacturing data over the last couple of months.
How far this small recovery in manufacturing goes may rest on the “phase one” trade deal so all eyes on new information on that topic this week. Over the weekend China issued new guidelines saying that it will raise penalties on violations of intellectual property rights in an attempt to address one of the sticking points in trade talks with the US. On Friday President Trump had said in an interview with Fox News that “This can’t be like an even deal, because we’re starting off on the floor and you’re already at the ceiling. So we have to have a much better deal,” before adding, we are “very close” to a trade pact.
Courtesy of Deutsche Bank, here is a full calendar for the week ahead:
- Data: Germany November Ifo business climate, Canada September wholesale trade sales, US Chicago Fed October national activity index, Dallas Fed November manufacturing activity
- Central Banks: ECB’s Villeroy, Holzmann, Lane speak, Bank of Israel policy decision
- Data: Germany GfK consumer confidence, US October retail inventories, preliminary October wholesale inventories, September FHFA house price index, November Richmond Fed manufacturing survey, October new home sales, November Conference Board consumer confidence
- Central Banks: Fed’s Powell (00:00 UK time), Brainard, ECB’s Coeure, Wunsch speak
- Data: China October industrial profits, France November consumer confidence, Italy November consumer confidence index, manufacturing confidence, economic sentiment, US weekly MBA mortgage applications, US second estimate Q3 GDP, personal consumption, GDP price index, core PCE, preliminary October durable goods orders, weekly initial jobless claims, November MNI Chicago PMI, October personal income, personal spending, pending home sales, Japan October retail sales
- Central Banks: Federal Reserve releases Beige Book, BoJ’s Sakurai and ECB’s Lane speak
- Data: Euro Area October M3 money supply, Italy October PPI, Euro Area November economic confidence, business climate indicator, industrial confidence, services confidence, final November consumer confidence, Germany preliminary November CPI, South Korea October industrial production, Japan October jobless rate, Japan November Tokyo CPI, preliminary October industrial production
- Central Banks: Mexican central bank releases monetary policy minutes, ECB’s Villeroy speaks
- Other: Thanksgiving holiday in US
- Data: UK November GfK consumer confidence, Japan September vehicle production, October housing starts, construction orders, November consumer confidence index, France October PPI, consumer spending, preliminary November CPI, final Q3 GDP, Germany November unemployment change, Italy preliminary October unemployment rate, UK October mortgage approvals, M4 money supply, Italy preliminary November CPI, final Q3 GDP, Euro Area October unemployment rate, preliminary November CPI, Core CPI, Canada September GDP
- Central Banks: Bank of Korea policy decision, ECB’s Villeroy speaks
Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the second vintage of Q3 GDP on Tuesday, and the durable goods report and core PCE report on Wednesday. Fed Chair Powell speaks on Monday, and Fed Governor Brainard speaks on Tuesday.
Monday, November 25
- 10:30 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing index, November (consensus -2.9, last -5.1)
- 7:00 PM Fed Chair Powell (FOMC voter) speaks; Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce annual dinner in Providence, Rhode Island. Prepared text is expected.
Tuesday, November 26
- 08:30 AM Advance goods trade balance, October (GS -$70.0bn, consensus -$71.0bn, last -$70.5bn); We estimate that the goods trade deficit declined to $70.0bn in October reflecting an increase in outbound container traffic. Goods imports declined in September, following the implementation of tranche 4A tariffs on imports from China, limiting the scope for a rebound in October.
- 08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, October preliminary (last -0.4%); Retail inventories, October (last +0.2%)
- 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, September (consensus +0.5%, last +0.2%)
- 09:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, September (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.2%, last -0.2%); We estimate the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose by 0.5% in September, following a 0.2% decline in August. Seasonal adjustment issues are likely to boost the series for September.
- 10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing index, November (consensus +6, last +8)
- 10:00 AM New home sales, October (GS +0.5%, consensus +1.0%, last -0.7%); We estimate that new home sales rose by 0.5% in October, partly reflecting mean reversion after a weak reading in the previous month.
- 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, November (GS 126.5, consensus 127.0, last 125.9); We estimate that the Conference Board consumer confidence index edged up by 0.6pt to 126.5 in November, partially reflecting higher equity prices.
- 1:00 PM Fed Governor Brainard (FOMC voter) speaks; Fed Governor Lael Brainard will discuss the Fed’s policy framework review at the New York Association for Business Economics. Prepared text and audience Q&A are expected.
Wednesday, November 27
- 08:30 AM GDP (second), Q3 (GS +2.1%, consensus +1.9%, last +1.9%); Personal consumption, Q3 (GS +3.0%, consensus +2.8%, last +2.9%); We expect a two-tenths upward revision in the second estimate of Q3 GDP to +2.1%, mainly reflecting a boost from expected consumption and inventory revisions, but a downward expected revision to residential investment.
- 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, October preliminary (GS -2.0%, consensus -0.7%, last -1.2%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, October preliminary (GS -0.5%, consensus +0.2%, last -0.4%); Core capital goods orders, October preliminary (GS -0.3%, consensus flat, last -0.6%); Core capital goods shipments, October preliminary (GS -0.3%, consensus flat, last +0.7%): We expect durable goods orders to decrease 2.0% in the preliminary October report, largely reflecting a decline in commercial aircraft orders. A further drag from September tariffs and weakness in industrial freight volumes suggest a potential drag on core capital goods orders and shipments, which we expect to decline by 0.3% each.
- 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended November 23 (GS 225k, consensus 220k, last 227k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended November 16 (consensus 1,690k, last 1,695k): We estimate jobless claims declined by 2k to 225k in the week ended November 23, following an unchanged reading in the prior week.
- 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, November (GS 47.7, consensus 47.0, last 43.2); We estimate that the Chicago PMI rose by 3.5pt to 47.7 in November – following a 3.9pt decline in October – partly reflecting a boost from rebounding domestic new export orders and an end to the GM auto strike.
- 08:30 AM Personal income, October (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); Personal spending, October (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); PCE price index, October (GS +0.23%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.01%); Core PCE price index, October (GS +0.13%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.05%); PCE price index (yoy), October (GS +1.37%, consensus +1.4%, last +1.33%); Core PCE price index (yoy), October (GS +1.66%, consensus +1.7%, last +1.67%): Based on details in the PPI, CPI, and import price reports, we forecast that the core PCE price index rose 0.13% month-over-month in October, or 1.66% from a year ago. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased 0.23% in October, or 1.37% from a year earlier. We expect a 0.4% increase in personal income in October and a 0.3% increase in personal spending.
- 10:00 AM Pending home sales, October (GS -0.5%, consensus flat, last +1.5%); We estimate that pending home sales declined 0.5% in October based on regional home sales data, following a 1.5% rise in September. We have found pending home sales to be a useful leading indicator of existing home sales with a one-to-two-month lag.
- 02:00 PM Beige Book, December FOMC meeting period: The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. In the December Beige Book, we look for anecdotes related to growth, labor markets, wages, price inflation, and the economic impacts of trade policy and slowing global growth.
Thursday, November 28
- Thanksgiving holiday. NYSE closed. SIFMA recommends bond markets also close.
Friday, November 29
- NYSE will close early at 1:00 PM. SIFMA recommends an early 2:00 PM close to bond markets.
Source: Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs