UMich Confidence Survey Soars As Real Wage Expectations Hit Multi-Decade Highs

The University of Michigan's preliminary October consumer sentiment data was a huge upside surprise as consumers anticipated larger income gains and lower inflation.

The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for Oct. rose to 96.0 vs. 93.2 prior month.

  • Current economic conditions index rose to 113.4 vs. 108.5 last month.

  • Expectations index rose to 84.8 vs. 83.4 last month.

Source: Bloomberg

The big driver is real income expectations rose to their most favorable level in two decades...

Buying Conditions also rebounded...

Source: Bloomberg

While uncertainties about trade policies have continued to depress economic prospects, its negative impact has slightly lessened (cited by 29%, down from 36%). Importantly, the impeachment inquiry has not had a significant negative impact on economic prospect; it was negatively mentioned by about half as many as negatively mentioned the GM strike (3% versus 5%).

Even Democrats were forced to admit they are more confident in October...

Source: Bloomberg

However, Long term inflation expectations fell to 2.2% in early October, the lowest long term annual inflation rate recorded since this question began in 1979.

Source: Bloomberg

So - Americans expect record wage growth and record low inflation?