So, for now, Trump remains right, the US consumer is not paying higher prices due to his tariffs. But, given the lagged impact of China's credit impulse, is that about to change?
Following the unexpected plunge in producer prices, analysts expected consumer prices to rebound in September, but it didn't as CPI was unchanged MoM and up 1.7% YoY (less than expected).
Last month, we concluded our analysis of the July Jolts by reminding readers that "JOLTS is 2 months delayed, so we wouldn't be surprised if next month's JOLTs is where the real ugliness lies." That's precisely what happened.
It still remains unclear if the general public will be willing to fly in a plane which we have now learned was manufactured with the explicit goal of minimizing cost even at the expense of passenger safety.
"I want to emphasize that growth of our balance sheet for reserve management purposes should in no way be confused with the large-scale asset purchase programs that we deployed after the financial crisis..."
"I don’t really think there’s enough ammunition left in the Fed’s chamber there to have a meaningful impact on the markets...traders are overestimating the ability of the Fed to rescue the market the way it has rescued it in the past..."
...a vast array of government interference in individuals’ voluntary exchange relationships substitutes lies for the truth that would otherwise be revealed...
