No tax rebate, low-interest loan, or cheap mortgage refinancing will convince people to resume normal economic activity if they still fear for their own health...
"In the space of a week, the retail landscape has changed from being fairly normalized to being absolutely disrupted beyond what we’ve ever seen before outside of the Second World War."
The adoption of massive inflationary and demand-driven measures in a shock to supply is not only a mistake, but is the recipe for stagflation and guarantees a multi-year negative impact...
...the best anyone can hope for is a recession deeper than that following the 2008 financial crisis. But given the flailing policy response so far, the chances of a far worse outcome are increasing by the day...
"...PMI is roughly indicative of GDP falling at an annualised rate approaching 5%, but the increasing number of virus-fighting lockdowns and closures mean the second quarter will likely see a far steeper rate of decline.”
Comparing the fiscal support to the economic loss, there was $1.5 of fiscal aid for every $1 loss in nominal GDP. That does not include the $700 billion that was directed to the banking sector and financial markets.
...the potent combination of trip cancellations and country-specific restrictions on international flights has had a staggering impact on the $880 billion global airline industry.
Three years ago we wrote that "the fate of the world economy is in the hands of China's housing bubble." Unfortunately, it now appears that China's housing bubble has finally burst and the consequences will be devastating.
