In November US consumers hunkered down and just as the holiday spending was in full force, and unexpectedly repaid $2.4BN in credit card debt, the most since March.
“The service providers posted the largest gain since April, driven mainly by professional and business services. Job creation was strong across companies of all sizes, led predominantly by midsized companies.”
In the eurozone, the economic aberration of negative rates continues despite the evidence of the collateral risks they generate. Meanwhile, you and I are blamed for not spending and borrowing more. What can go wrong?
"Please know that I realize this will not be a popular decision; and more disconcerting to me personally, is that this decision may drive crime up. I get it."
Policymakers have mistakenly misread the breakdown of the Phillips curve, resulting in prolonged loose monetary policy. The Phillips curve is not dead, but it changed it stripes.
"The missing ingredient compared to this time last year is optimism about the future, with business sentiment regarding prospects for the next twelve months running close to the lowest for at least seven years."
The risks to the recovery will be if trade tensions between the US and China escalate again, a rise in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East or if there is a much sharper acceleration of wage growth relative to capex and productivity growth – resulting in a more pronounced rise in inflation.
... including retaliatory assassination attempts, kidnappings, bombings of U.S. government facilities, and attacks on shipping and other privately-owned U.S. entities
