The Belarus government is implementing widespread measures to crack down on dissent as pro-Ukraine guerrillas attempt to sabotage railways and other logistics that could be used by Russia for a future offensive from the north.
The move comes not long after the guerrillas, part of an organization called BYPOL, used two armed drones to damage a Russian Beriev A-50 parked at the Machulishchy Air Base near Minsk. The early warning aircraft was lent to Belarus for monitoring the security of their southern border. The attack failed to destroy the plane beyond minor repairs according the the Belarus government, but did garner BYPOL headlines in the western media.
What they did not report was that the primary perpetrator of the attack was apprehended along with 20 other accomplices. Belarus claims that at least one of the guerrillas has ties to Ukrainian security services, though this remains unconfirmed.
Last month, President Alexander Lukashenko warned that:
"I'm ready to fight together with the Russians from the territory of Belarus in one case only: if so much as one soldier from (Ukraine) comes to our territory with a gun to kill my people."
If BYPOL attacks continue within Belarus they may provide the very rationale that Lukashenko needs to justify joining military forces with Russia, which would open up the northern border of Ukraine to attack and likely deal a devastating blow to the nation's defensive posture.
Acts of sabotage have already been used as fuel for civilian restrictions including the issuance of arrest warrants for numerous activists as well as at least five journalists, two of them now sentenced to 12 years in prison for a variety of charges including “Tax evasion, organizing activities aimed at inciting racial, ethnic, religious, or social hatred, and public calls through the media and the Internet aimed at damaging the national security of Belarus.”
The Belarus government seems to have abandoned optics in favor of policies akin to martial law, which suggests a near term plan to join Russia militarily as well as to wage an anti-insurgency effort against BYPOL. Foreign Minister Sergei Aleinik stated at the end of February that the accelerated militarization of the eastern flank of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) represents a threat to his country's security.
Lukashenko has launched a diplomatic tour, visiting allies of Russia and Belarus in an effort to strengthen ties. He was recently welcomed in Iran, which has been involved in economic support of Russia in the midst of heavy NATO sanctions. The president's statement to the Iranian leadership appeared to stress the view that the US was a shared enemy of the two nations:
Lukashenko has been accused by western governments of election fraud and vote rigging to defeat his opponent, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, in the 2020 elections. Most evidence of fraud comes from the testimony of poll workers, and if true constitutes an egregious violation of voter trust. However, it should be noted that Tsikhanouskaya has been embraced by the globalist World Economic Forum, which raises suspicions about the intentions of her candidacy. She has also been announcing reforms for Belarus as if she has the power to implement them; perhaps assuming that she will eventually be installed as president sometime in the near future.
While the Belerus crackdown is itself a display of oppression if all the accusations are true, it also highlights the domino effect of NATO involvement in the region leading to wider instability. The Ukrainian government has also been accused of numerous trespasses against civilian rights with the country aggressively enforcing martial law, and these questionable actions are supported by US and EU tax dollars.
The governments of the US and Europe refuse to acknowledge that Ukraine is a full blown proxy war against Russia, but the results are clear and the consequences could be catastrophic. Eastern nations including the BRICs are beginning to gravitate to each other not just economically but militarily, which one might think is the opposite of what NATO would want. At the same time, Ukrainian support for guerrilla operations in Belarus, if proven, could justify expansion of the war.