World stocks hit a new all time high on Friday with U.S. equity futures rising for the 8th trading day out of 9 in 2018 and the Dow is just a little over 300 points away from 26,000. The euro surged to a three-year high as Germany was said to reach a "grand coalition" agreement, heaping more pressure on the dollar before inflation data.
The most important takeaway of the net short VIX ETP position is that short VIX ETPs now have more vega to buy on a given vol spike than ever before - leaving the potential for an outsized increase in volatility should the SPX sell off sharply...
"the integrity of the CDS market - which is predicated on the expectation that companies seek to avoid payment default, not to accept illicit payments to default intentionally - will be irreparably damaged"
"One area I might be slightly worried about is financial market asset valuations, which I would characterize as elevated ... the Federal Reserve may have to press harder on the brakes at some point over the next few years. If that happens, the risk of a hard landing will increase."
"We know there is a very serious debate being held across fixed income departments in the investment community: just how much and how quickly will the dramatic spread compression of the last few years be undone by the end of the bond bull market?"
U.S. futures are back in the green, while Asian and European stocks were mixed after worries about a U.S.-led trade war put world stocks at risk of their first two day loss of the year on Thursday, while bond markets bounced as China poured cold water on reports that it might stop buying U.S. debt.
In those countries and corners of the financial system where the traditional services of money are inadequately supplied, Bitcoin (and cryptocurrencies more generally) may offer viable alternatives.
It was a relatively quiet session until a little after 5am ET when all early-morning market moves were superseded by aggressive cross-asset reaction - mostly in the form of selling of anything US-linked - to a Bloomberg report that China is reconsidering its UST holdings.
"Over the last two years, European investment managers have clearly expressed their intention to reduce equity research spend. The official data is telling a more aggressive budget-cutting story."
“I haven’t seen hedging activity this light since the end of the financial crisis... people are having a hard time even imagining how the market could decline..."
With WTI Crude futurestopping $63, at the highest level since Dec 2014, it seems the market has convinced itself that everything is fixed thanks to OPEC. This year, however, the cartel and friends face even more challenges in sticking together until the end of the December, with both supply and demand uncertainties adding to the unknowns...
The central bank of Switzerland said on Tuesday it expects to report an annual return of 54 billion francs - a sum equivalent to 8% of Switzerland’s GDP, and more than Apple's annual profit.
"Novogratz is putting substantially all of his crypto investments into Galaxy -- about $400 million of bitcoin, ether, initial coin offerings and stakes in startups such as Xapo, Bitstamp and Ripple Labs."
The global market melt up continues, with Asian and European stocks rising, sending the MSCI all-country world stocks index to another record high as Europe’s main markets shrugged off a tech wobble in Asia, while 10Y TSY yields rose to the highest level since March
