"When we have a bear market again, and we are going to have a bear market again, it will be the worst in our lifetime...Debt is everywhere, and it’s much, much higher now."
"If we lived in a dystopian world without trust, bitcoin might dominate existing payment methods. But in this world, it seems unlikely that bitcoin could ever be as convenient as existing payment means." - NY Fed
Despite reassurances from Goldman's Jeffrey Curries that global demand is "rock solid," it appears anxiety over US shale production, rising inventories, and questions over OPEC's deal extensions (as well as insanely extreme long speculative positioning) has sparked significant weakness in oil prices...
Equity funds just lost US$30.6bn to outflows. This was the largest outflow on record from equity funds, which just had their record high inflow of US$33.2bn only two weeks ago.
Confirming JPMorgan's "worst case scenario"that forced de-levering in vol-based strategies would lead to retail ETF outflows and create a vicious cycle downwards, Morgan Stanley's Christopher Metli warns that today’s moves lower are likely not being driven by systematic supply – this appears to be more discretionary selling...
"Assuming the Senate agreement becomes law, we will revise our deficit and Treasury supply estimates higher by $20-35bn. This furthers our views of higher rates, a steeper curve, and tighter USD funding conditions."
With the great equity volquake come and - for now - gone, what one indicator should traders watch to decide if a new market shock is imminent? According to Bank of America, here is the answer...
Nancy Pelosi vowed, during an unprecedented eight-hour speech yesterday, to oppose the bill unless Speaker Paul Ryan agrees to open debate on an immigration bill - something he has so far been reluctant to do...
After a day of conference calls with investors, Goldman's newly-hired quant Rocky Fishman has assembled the most frequently asked questions that are relevant for trading dynamics in the VIX and equities in the coming days.
“This will not be a soft landing... All the market indicators right now look very similar to what we saw before the Lehman crisis, but the lesson has somehow been forgotten.”
