Last week's revision to the US saving rate was the largest on record; it suggests that Americans have $500BN more in cash "saved up" than previously expected. This has profound implications on the US economy and Fed policy.
Despite headlines that the biggest coffee chain in the world will soon begin accepting Bitcoin, the crypto space is under pressure this morning (led by Bitcoin) following comments from Goldman Sachs that "further declines" are expected.
"The vast majority of responses in our poll for tomorrow's NFP number are 175k-200k. Also keep an eye on the wage number - anything over +0.3% will raise some eyebrows." - David Rosenberg
The equity universe is in turmoil as Apple flies into the trillion-dollar golden sun, but the wings fall off FAANG stocks in a massive market rollover.
In the relentless war to capture market share by slashing fees on passive market instruments such as index funds and ETFs, it was only a matter of time before someone eventually cut fees to zero. Today, Fidelity did just that.
A new month begins on the back foot after a fresh escalation in the US-China trade war, more PBOC intervention to calm markets, a Japanese bond rout as the BOJ did not intervene to calm markets, and a Fed meeting.
Apple's earnings could mean all the difference between becoming the first $1 trillion market cap company, or cementing the recent collapse in the tech sector.
Few debates become as heated in investment circles as those between the advocates of active and passive investing. Duels are compelling. But focusing on this fight risks missing trends which are starting to appear elsewhere in the investment world...
"The next large QT-weekly reduction ironically enough is happening in an action-packed week, where on 1 Aug the Fed’s UST holdings will decline by $24bn."
"...there is a growing fundamental and technical list of signposts that may suggest that the market is starting to look like it is in the process of making a possible (and important) top... downside risk dwarfs upside reward."
The Bank of Japan concludes its latest 2-day policy meeting on Tuesday (late Monday evening EDT) in what will be the most anticipated of this week's 3 central bank announcements.
No matter how committed you believe you are to a “buy and hold” investment strategy – there is a point during every decline where “passive indexers” become “panicked sellers.” The only question is how big of a loss will you take before you get there?
