Despite the last 2 days of exuberant buying and resumption of the melt-up, it seems there are more than a few holes in investors' trading accounts that brokerages are trying to deal with...
"While it is believed ETF investors have become 'passive', the reality is they have simply become 'active' investors in a different form... as 'passive' indexers turn into 'active panic-sellers'..."
"Instead, we think the passage of tax cuts coincided with peak excitement, at least in terms of price/valuation and 'speculation' as represented by things like Bitcoin..."
A UST yield of 3% could trigger an equity market correction, according to SocGen, which calculates that if UST yields rise to 3%, with the ERP unchanged, the S&P 500 would fall to ~2500, which is also the bank's 2018 S&P500 year-end target.
"No surprises": that is how Goldman summarizes today's detailed infrastructure proposal released by the White House, which the bank says has "low odds of enactment this year."
"When markets correct, the standard retort is that the fundamentals remain strong and supportive.... Well, at the top, economic fundamentals always look strong and this is why interest rates are going up. It is interest rates, not growth, that is the concern."
Despite a very explicit warning by Goldman's co-head of equity trading that the "regime has changed" and that instead of "buying the dip", investors should be "selling-the-rip", so far this morning a global BTFD relief rally has been unleashed from Asia to Europe and the US as traders welcomed a rare respite from soaring volatility.
"The big fear in risk markets is that we get a big CPI print and it validates the narrative that inflation is coming back and the Fed is going to have to move faster."
After last week's market plunge, suddenly the pension mandate has flipped, with the relative performance between stocks and bonds now meaning that pension funds have shifted from buyers to sellers of fixed income.
"The recent drop in equities is a normalization, a reasonable wake-up signal to show that stock markets can’t just keep rising all the time." - Ewald Nowotny.
On Tuesday, February 5th, the Chairmen of the U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) testified before the U. S. Senate banking committee regarding regulation of cryptocurrency trading. Both agencies have recently brought major cases against, and issued cease-and-desist orders to multi-million dollar operations.
Last Sunday, following the Friday post-payrolls flush, but before the Monday volocaust, which was the consequence of the concurrent historic vol squeeze of inverse VIX ETF funds, coupled with the sharp deleveraging by CTAs, risk parity and various other quant funds, we predicted that recent events were a "rec
It's an oldie but a goodie. Cramer says it right on camera. He used to do it. It's illegal? So whaaaat.. SEC doesn't understand it. Just remember this next time you turn on CNBC.
There have been 16 drawdowns of 10%+ since 1976. Of the 16 corrections, only five occurred around a recession. Of the remaining 11 non-recession episodes, 1987 was the only one that turned into a bear market.
After getting absolutely crushed on their inverse vol exposure, retail investors have... doubled down as inflows into inverse VIX ETFs, i.e. selling volatility, increased sharply over the past two weeks.
"If you’re holding cash, you’re going to feel pretty stupid" said Ray Dalio as he was putting the finishing touches on Bridgewater's biggest ever thematic short...
"Superficial patriotism is the most attractive form of patriotism for any politician. It encourages spectacle without substance. Bluster without tangible success. Chest-thumping without sacrifice. "
