January will end up being the most volatile month for the S&P 500 since the 2016 presidential election. A VIX in the 14's is reasonable given January's 9.9% realized volatility.
"The committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate... Inflation on a 12 ‑month basis is expected to move up this year"
Contrary to prevailing consensus, according to Citi's former chief FX strategist Steven Englander, the Fed does not see a particular reason to send any hawkish message today. He explains why.
While the US Treasury had previously warned it would gradually increase TSY auction sizes, bond traders were looking to today's Refunding statement for details on when and how much this increase would be. We got the answer moments ago.
"Apple, the single largest-weighting in the S&P 500 and the bellwether for both U.S. equities and the technology sector, is trading terribly in technical terms. If no-one else is going to be concerned, then I’m now officially very worried for global equity markets."
Wall Street M&A bankers have good reason to celebrate this bonus season: record debt-underwriting fees, driven by still-low interest rates, caused banker bonuses to swell this year.
The global selloff that started on Monday, resulting in the biggest drop in US stocks since September, accelerated overnight and this morning world stocks and US equity futures are a sea of red, even as the US dollar has resumed its drop.
What mutant do you get when you combine a hawk with a swan? According to a nervous Wall Street, the answer will be revealed on Wednesday, after Janet Yellen's final FOMC meeting as Fed Chair.
Japan's new cryptocurrency regulations were put to the test last week when CoinCheck - a popular, if unlicensed, Tokyo-based crypto-exchange - became the target of "the biggest heist in crypto history."
"Back in 1987, these strategies made up just 2% of the market. Today, anywhere between 6% and 10% is held in these self-reflexive implicit and explicit short vol strategies..."
"The more responsible shorter-term trading rationale is rather than making a major shift in your investments, being willing to miss the first few basis points to have your longer-term thesis proven or disproven by the new data and information."
"..by the time they realize that they’ve been hoodwinked and that Trump has become the establishment’s Manchurian President it will be too late. Any possibility for good that could have come out of the Trump White House will have been squandered and it may take another generation or more before a similar opportunity presents itself."
