Low unemployment (yay), slowing wage growth (boo), retail job losses continue (ugh)... sparked algos buying in stocks and the dollar and despite some vol in bonds, they are unchanged for now...
The US employment report is about as hard as the data come. In our view, employment is challenged here and the onus is on the labor stats to pull a rabbit out of the hat...
After the surprisingly poor August payroll report, analysts expect the disappointing trend to continue and forecast a below-trend 145k nonfarm payrolls in September. While the risk is to the upside, the whisper number is for a sub-100K print.
The dominant companies of the 21st century may not just be those that use data most effectively, but those who successfully retrain their existing workforce to effectively compete in a world where data is eating everything.
“Businesses have turned more cautious in their hiring. Small businesses have become especially hesitant. If businesses pull back any further, unemployment will begin to rise."
On Friday evening, the government here in Puerto Rico made an announcement to local retirees that many of them would have their pensions cut... Poof. Just like that.
Pay, employee tenure, and management responsibility are the three biggest indicators of turnover at small businesses. They’re also three things that business owners can actually do something about.