...if private credit is saying 'no mas', then no way the AI cycle will be completed...

With AI driving up demand for compute, Earth-based data centers appear to be encountering certain structural bottlenecks...

The Trump administration really wants the rest of the (Western?) world to embrace American-made artificial intelligence and technology.

"I would expect more volatility because investors are differentiating more and they are not just playing one sector"

Markets would treat a Kevin Warsh nomination as Fed chair as a tilt toward a more hawkish, rule-oriented regime, especially relative to the current Jerome Powell framework or the Kevin Hassett alternative

We're so back. 

“Most advanced economies have struggled to keep pace with the US in the AI race, but 2025 has also been the year in which China has closed part of the gap”

US President Trump is to give an address to the nation on Wednesday night, live from the White House at 21:00EST (02:00GMT Thursday). White House Press Secretary said that Trump’s address will be about accomplishments, while he will talk about what's to come and maybe tease new year policies.

...from stablecoins to US fiscal worries and from private credit to The Fed trade...

...while the game is never easy, this year has again rewarded optimism, and that bias is shot through many of the items below.

US Nov. NFP surpasses exp. while U/E rate jumps past Fed's year-end forecast; US Oct. headline NFP tumbles; US Retail Sales miss on the headline, but Control tops; US Flash S&P Global PMIs fall more than expected; Fed's Bostic says jobs report does not change outlook much; UK Comp PMI beats, Wage growth remains sticky; Mixed European PMIs.

...good (geopolitical) news, bad (trade) news, and ugly (macro) news

"We upgraded to benchmark (from underweight) on July 1st. We raise further because: i) EPS is now..." 

This is not a report that will stop the Fed from cutting rates... 

A transition from high-growth / easy-policy to high-growth / tight-policy (via FCI, not policy rates) could be challenging for markets...

"If the EU... insist on continuing to restrict, limit, and deter the competitiveness ... the US will have no choice but to begin using every tool at its disposal to counter these unreasonable measures,”

We appear to be moving from an “everything wins” phase to a more discriminating “winners and losers” environment.

Retail traders and professional managers are very long, fast money is trimming its bullish positioning, and liquidity in China is pulling back...