"The best has yet to come," a phrase that has frequently been echoed by members of the Trump administration, referring to the greatest ever economic rebound in American history.
But the adminstration's economic hype was mainly seen ahead of the Nov. 03 presidential election, likely just cheerleading, that is, because now, days after the election (still undecided), high-frequency data of countries in the Western world and Japan indicate the possible start of a double-dip decline in economic activity.
Bloomberg compiled an array of high-frequency indexes for countries in the Western world and Japan, includes data from Bloomberg Economics, Google, Moovitapp.com, Indeed.com, Shoppertrak, Opportunity Insights, and other databases that show the global recovery is out of juice.
As the world waits for the U.S. presidential election results, the best is already over for the global economic recovery that started with a massive sprint of some $20 trillion in stimulus earlier this year from governments and central banks. But with policymakers, on both sides of the Atlantic, unwilling at the moment to embark on the next round of massive stimulus support, in combination with the second wave of the virus pandemic, other high-frequency datasets, such as OpenTable restaurant data, also point to slumping activity.
Here's Bloomberg's commentary on weakening global economic activity:
"Alternative, high-frequency data show that economic activity in advanced economies weakened in October amid renewed outbreaks of the coronavirus, and the latest readings suggest the downtrend continued at the beginning of November, particularly in major European countries. According to Bloomberg Economics gauges, activity in France and Italy turned down sharply as lockdown restrictions took effect that integrates data such as mobility, energy consumption, and public transport usage. Activity in the U.S., U.K., and Canada also declined."
Another reality check for the global economy is Citi's economic surprise indexes, in which economic data is stalling worldwide as it fails to beat consensus forecasts of market economists.
What's becoming clear is that rising virus cases, depleted global stimulus, and a vaccine that could be months away (or maybe quarters - really who knows), point to an uncertain outlook for the global economy, one that fails to resemble a "V-shaped" recovery.